(Predicted) Finalists for the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2013

By Dan Trammel

@HighwaytoHall

At the Highway to Hall, we try to assess a player’s chances of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. We are less concerned with the “Should he?” than the “Will he?” On November 30, the Pro Football Hall of Fame announced the names of the 27 semi-finalists being considered for the Class of 2013. The list of semi-finalists will be reduced by mail ballot to 15 modern-era finalists, which will be revealed in early January. The list increases to 17 finalists with the inclusion of the two Seniors Committee candidates named in August: Curley Culp and Dave Robinson. The Class of 2013, comprised of a maximum of 5 modern-era candidates and 2 Seniors Committee selections, will be determined by the Selection Committee on February 2.

With the release of the list of semi-finalists for the Class of 2013, let’s predict the 15 modern-era finalists. Once the official list is revealed in January, we will then assess each player’s chances for induction.

To begin, let’s look at the list of modern-era finalists over the last five years who have not been elected:

2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Cris Carter	Cris Carter	Cris Carter	Cris Carter	Cris Carter
Andre Reed	Andre Reed	Andre Reed	Andre Reed	Andre Reed
Paul Tagliabue	Paul Tagliabue	Tim Brown	Tim Brown	Tim Brown
		Charles Haley	Charles Haley	Charles Haley
		Roger Craig	Jerome Bettis	Jerome Bettis
		Don Coryell		Edward DeBartolo, Jr.
				Kevin Greene
				Will Shields
				Bill Parcells
				Aeneas Williams

This provides us with a good starting point. All five remaining players from the Class of 2011 appear on the list of the Class of 2012 and there is no reason to believe the voters have changed their minds regarding the candidacies of these players so it is safe to assume they will again be finalists. So our first five finalists are:

Andre Reed

Tim Brown

Charles Haley

Cris Carter

Jerome Bettis

Before looking at the remaining finalists of the Class of 2012, let’s assess the chances of the first-year eligible candidates. In 2011, five first-year eligible players (Bettis, Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin, Deion Sanders, and Willie Roaf) were selected as finalists, knocking Roger Craig and Don Coryell, 2010 finalists, off of the list. It is highly likely to happen again, as a strong class of first-time eligible players is presented. In alphabetical order, the list of first-year eligible candidates is as follows:

Larry Allen. Allen was a 6-time First Team All-Pro and a 1-time Second Team All-Pro. He was named to 11 Pro Bowls and is a member of the All-Decade Teams for both the 1990s and the 2000s. He won a Super Bowl Ring with the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XXX.

Morten Andersen. Andersen, a 7-time Pro Bowler, is the All-time leader in points scored. He was a 3-time First Team All-Pro and a 2-time Second Team All-Pro. He was named to the All-Decade teams of the 1980s and 1990s.

John Lynch. Lynch played a pivotal role in making a downtrodden franchise into one of the top teams in football, helping the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to 5 playoff appearances in 6 seasons. A 2-time First Team All-Pro and 2-time Second Team All-Pro, Lynch was selected to 9 Pro Bowls and was named NFL Alumni Defensive Back of the Year in 2000. He won a Super Bowl ring with the Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII.

                               

Jonathan Ogden. Ogden was a 4-time First Team All-Pro and a 4-time Second Team All-Pro. Named to 11 Pro Bowls, Ogden was selected as NFL Alumni Offensive Lineman of the Year in 2002 and was named to the All Decade team of the 2000s. He was a member of the Super Bowl XXXV winning Baltimore Ravens.

Warren Sapp. Sapp recorded 96.5 career sacks and, with Lynch, turned the Buccaneers into a perennial playoff team. He was named a First Team All-Pro 4 times and a Second Team All-Pro twice. He was tabbed to 7 Pro Bowls and is a member of the All-Decade Teams for both the 1990s and the 2000s. He won the 1999 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award and was a member of the Super Bowl XXXVII winning Buccaneers. 

Michael Strahan. Strahan, a 4-time First Team All-Pro, and 2-time Second Team All-Pro, was named the 2001 NFL Defensive Player of the Year. He was selected to 7 Pro Bowls and is a member of the All-Decade Team of the 2000s. He is the single season sack leader and was a member of the Super Bowl XLII winning Giants.

It is difficult to argue with any of the above nominees. But as impressive as Andersen’s credentials are, he is unlikely to make it as a finalist this year. Only one kicker is enshrined in Canton (Jan Stenerud) and if another one is to join him one day, it is most likely to be Adam Vinatieri. As we have stated in our discussion of relief pitchers in Major League Baseball, kickers and closers tend to be judged by postseason performance. It is not Andersen’s fault he played on less than stellar teams and only appeared in one Super Bowl. But it will be held against his candidacy.

                            

The other questionable candidate among this list is Lynch. Although a great player, safety is one of the least represented positions in the Hall of Fame. In fact, the career of only one Hall of Fame safety began after the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 (Ronnie Lott)[1]. Here are the nine safeties currently enshrined in Canton:

Jack Christiansen	Mel Renfro
Ken Houston	Emlen Tunnell
Paul Krause	Larry Wilson
Yale Lary	Willie Wood
Ronnie Lott

Some of the voters have mentioned this bias, so it is possible Lynch advances so the voters can at least discuss a safety.[2] Steve Atwater also matches this criteria but our hunch is that Lynch is the call.

With the advancement of 5 first-year eligible candidates, our projected list now looks like this:

Andre Reed	Larry Allen
Tim Brown	John Lynch
Charles Haley	Jonathan Ogden
Cris Carter	Warren Sapp
Jerome Bettis	Michael Strahan

With 5 more spots to fill, we can now turn our attention to the remaining finalists from the Class of 2012:

Edward DeBartolo, Jr.  DeBartolo has been named a semi-finalist each of the last two years, advancing as a finalist last year for the first time.

Kevin Greene. Greene has been a semi-finalist 6 times, but last year was the first time he advanced as a finalist.

Will Shields. Shields was in his first year on the ballot in 2012.

Bill Parcells. Last year was Parcells third appearance as a finalist. However, his first two appearances (2001-02) occurred prior to his return to coaching in 2003, which altered his candidacy and required him to wait the mandatory five-year waiting period upon his retirement in 2006.

Aeneas Williams. Williams has been a semi-finalist 3 times, advancing to the finals last year for the first time.

                            

Based upon our view of how the current selectors seed them, Parcells, Shields, and Williams most likely advance. Greene and DeBartolo are in a similar position to Coryell and Craig in 2011. They were strong enough candidates to advance as finalists in a down year for first-time eligible candidates like 2010, but they were the first to be knocked off when there were many noteworthy first-time candidates.

So who fills the final two spots? Well, in this case, timing is significant. When George Young died in December 2001, he was selected as a Hall of Fame finalist each of the next three years. This is perhaps due to the voters, all members of the sports media, reviewing his career as part of writing obituaries for their newspapers. Maybe this provided them with a new understanding and appreciation for his career. With Art Modell’s death in September, a similar effect may occur. A finalist in 2002, Modell was described as a “polarizing but iconic” figure[3]. Enough nice things were said about him upon his death that he may advance as a finalist.

The fifteenth and final candidate could be anyone else on the list, but considering how much Paul Tagliabue has been in the news lately, overturning Commissioner Roger Goodell’s suspensions of the New Orleans Saints players involved in Bountygate, and how poor the public considers Goodell’s handling of the NFL of late, Tagliabue may now be viewed in much better light. Frankly, the most difficult candidates to handicap are the contributors. But our belief is Tagliabue will be the fifteenth finalist.

Our list of fifteen finalists is as follows:

Andre Reed	Larry Allen	Bill Parcells
Tim Brown	John Lynch	Will Shields
Charles Haley	Jonathan Ogden	Aeneas Williams
Cris Carter	Warren Sapp	Art Modell
Jerome Bettis	Michael Strahan	Paul Tagliabue

Remember, only 5 of the listed names will be inducted into Canton this year. Those who think the voters have an easy task clearly do not know what they are talking about. We will make our prediction for the Class of 2013 once the official list of finalists is revealed.

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[1] Since Rod Woodson only spent the final 5 seasons of a 15-year career as a safety, we consider him a cornerback.

[2] See Peter King, Monday Morning QB-Tuesday, August 28, 2012, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/writers/peter_king/08/28/tony-romo/index.html (August 28, 2012). See also Len Pasquarelli, Canton: Arguments for, Against Harrison, http://m.espn.go.com/nfl/story?storyId=4245444&wjb (June 9, 2009).

[3] Len Pasquarelli, Art Modell, polarizing but iconic former NFL owner, dies at 87, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/football/nfl/09/06/modell/index.html (September 6, 2012).