Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013: Part II

This is the second of a 4 part look at the Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for the Class of 2013, in which we attempt to predict the order the candidates will finish. Click here to read Part I.

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

Edgar Martinez

	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	WAR
Martinez	7213	1219	2247	514	309	1261	.312	.418	.515	147	64.4

 

Of players with a minimum of 8,000 plate appearances, here is the list of those who have a career batting average over .300, an on base percentage above .400, and a slugging percentage over .500:

Ed Delahanty	Ted Williams
Tris Speaker	Stan Musial
Ty Cobb	Edgar Martinez
Harry Heilmann	Larry Walker
Babe Ruth	Frank Thomas
Rogers Hornsby	Manny Ramirez
Lou Gehrig	Chipper Jones
Jimmie Foxx	Todd Helton
Mel Ott	Albert Pujols

The list is presented in the order in which the players retired, with those players active at the end. Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker are the first new members of the club since Stan Musial retired in 1960. Needless to say, the first 11 players on the list are in the Hall of Fame.

                    

With 1,283 career walks and only 1,202 strikeouts, Martinez is one of the rare 300 club members with more walks than strikeouts. The complete list is as follows:

Babe Ruth	Carl Yastrzemski
Rogers Hornsby	Darrell Evans
Lou Gehrig	George Brett
Jimmie Foxx	Edgar Martinez
Mel Ott	Rafael Palmeiro
Ted Williams	Barry Bonds
Stan Musial	Frank Thomas
Yogi Berra	Gary Sheffield
Mickey Mantle	Chipper Jones
Al Kaline	Todd Helton
Hank Aaron	Albert Pujols

A 7-time All-Star, Martinez did not become a full-time player until he was 27 years old. A few more years at the beginning of his career and he would have numbers that would guarantee election. He is also hindered by the fact he spent much of his career as a designated hitter, a position which the Hall of Fame voters do not value.

Fred McGriff

McGriff never hit 50 home runs in a season. He never hit 40 home runs in a season. In 1992, McGriff led the National League with 35 homers, the lowest total to lead the National League in a non-strike season since Ralph Kiner hit 23 in 1946. Although his home run numbers may look pedestrian now after the “Juiced Ball Era,” McGriff was one of the top power hitters of his time, finishing in the top 10 among all Major Leaguers in homers 7 consecutive seasons. How rare is that? Here’s the list:

Number of times	Player	Years
16	Babe Ruth	1918-33
14	Lou Gehrig	1925-38
12	Jimmie Foxx	1929-40
9	Hank Aaron	1965-73
9	Eddie Mathews	1952-60
9	Mel Ott	1931-39
9	Mike Schmidt	1979-87
8	Gavvy Cravath	1912-19
8	Joe DiMaggio	1936-42, 46
8	Ralph Kiner	1946-53
8	Mickey Mantle	1954-61
7	Napoleon Lajoie	1897-1903
7	Fred McGriff	1988-94
7	Frank Robinson	1956-62
7	Harry Stovey	1880-86
7	Cy Williams	1918-24
7	Ken Williams	1921-27

The list above contains twelve Hall of Famers, 4 non-Hall of Famers born before Babe Ruth, and Fred McGriff. McGriff was the last player to join this group and the first since Mike Schmidt, who in turn was the first since Hank Aaron. Not only was McGriff one of the top power hitters of his generation, he was a model of consistency. Fifteen times he hit twenty or more home runs, to join this illustrious group:

Seasons	Player
20	Hank Aaron
19	Barry Bonds
17	Willie Mays
17	Frank Robinson
16	Babe Ruth
16	Ted Williams
16	Jim Thome
16	Reggie Jackson
16	Eddie Murray
15	Fred McGriff
15	Mel Ott
15	Willie Stargell
15	Dave Winfield
15	Ken Griffey, Jr.
15	Alex Rodriguez

McGriff was a feared part of any lineup he was in, but never more so than when he was traded to Atlanta. In 1993, McGriff was traded from San Diego to Atlanta and his second half tear helped the Braves hold off San Francisco (who finished 103-59) to win the National League West. That season with the Braves he batted .310 with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs and led them to a 51-19 record after his arrival. In the National League Championship Series against Philadelphia, McGriff batted .435 with 4 RBIs but the Braves lost in 6 games. In 1994, McGriff batted .310 with 34 home runs before the season was called because of the player strike. McGriff led Atlanta to the next two World Series, winning one title in 1995 against Cleveland. In 50 career postseason games, McGriff batted .303 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs.

Unfortunately, McGriff retired with 493 home runs. The strike quite possibly cost him the 7 home runs needed to reach 500. Would that have been enough to get him inducted into Cooperstown? Maybe not. But it would have given him a stronger case. The home run bonanza in the late 1990s and early 2000s make it hard to believe McGriff was a great power hitter. McGriff’s vote total will rise slightly this year, but he likely won’t break the 25% mark.

Larry Walker

As mentioned above in the discussion on Edgar Martinez, Walker is 1 of 18 players in history to have a career batting average over .300, an on base percentage over .400, and a slugging percentage over .500. The 1997 National League Most Valuable Player, Walker won 3 batting titles and 7 Gold Glove Awards, while being named to 5 All-Star teams. His career WAR of 69.7 ranks 81^st all-time and 52^nd among position players. He has the 13^th highest slugging percentage in history.[i] But…and it is a very large but…he played in Colorado. It doesn’t matter that while playing for Montreal in the strike-shortened 1994 season, Walker batted .322 with 44 doubles and 86 RBIs in only 103 games. Many voters believe Walker’s career was enhanced in the thin mountain air. His career OPS+, designed to adjust for park and league effects, is 141, tied for 69^th all-time, and well ahead of Rafael Palmeiro (below, 132), Dave Winfield (130), Eddie Murray (129), and Sammy Sosa (128). Nonetheless, he didn’t reach any magic numbers, his career was short by Hall standards, and he didn’t win any World Series rings (despite hitting .357 against the Red Sox in the 2004 World Series).

                    

Sammy Sosa

The players with multiple 50+ homer seasons:

Number of Seasons	Player
4	Babe Ruth
4	Mark McGwire
4	Sammy Sosa
3	Alex Rodriguez
2	Jimmie Foxx
2	Ken Griffey, Jr.
2	Ralph Kiner
2	Mickey Mantle
2	Willie Mays

The players who have hit 60 or more home runs in a season:

Number of Seasons	Player
3	Sammy Sosa
2	Mark McGwire
1	Barry Bonds
1	Roger Maris
1	Babe Ruth

Like other players from the “Steroid Era,” Sosa is widely assumed to have used performance enhancing drugs. Unlike Clemens and Bonds, however, Sosa did not have Hall of Fame numbers prior to the period he allegedly began usage. As a result, he will receive approximately 15% of the vote.

Dale Murphy

This is Murphy’s 15^th and final year on the ballot, making him 1 of 35 players to fall off the ballot due to time. His vote total peaked at 23.2 % in his second year then dropped to a low of 8.5 % in year six. Last year he received 14.5 % of the vote and this time he should gain a few more percentage points.

 

                    

A 2-time MVP Award winner, Murphy will join Juan Gonzalez and Roger Maris as the only multiple MVP Award winners not enshrined in Cooperstown.

In 1983, Murphy’s statline was as follows:

G	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	TB
162	131	178	24	36	121	30	.302	.393	.540	318

In 1983, Murphy became the third player in history to hit 30 or more home runs, steal 30 or more bases, drive in 100 or more runs, and bat over .300 in a single season, and the first since Hank Aaron in 1963 (Ken Williams in 1922 was the first). However, Jose Canseco joined this exclusive club in 1988 and this feat was achieved 8 more times in the 1990s. It has now occurred 21 times, watering down the impressiveness of Murphy’s achievement. This symbolizes much of what has hurt Murphy’s candidacy. His numbers do not appear that spectacular any more. At the time of his retirement, Murphy stood 27^th all-time in home runs. Of the 26 players ahead of him, 24 are Hall of Famers (Dave Kingman and Darrell Evans are the others). Twenty years later, he stands 53^rd on the list.

Don Mattingly

Mattingly won 9 Gold Glove Awards, was named to 6 All-Star Teams, and took home the 1985 American League MVP Award. From 1984 to 1989, Mattingly was one of the top players in baseball:

Year	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+
1984	603	91	207	44	23	110	.343	.381	.537	156
1985	652	107	211	48	35	145	.324	.371	.567	156
1986	677	117	238	53	31	113	.352	.394	.573	161
1987	569	93	186	38	30	115	.327	.378	.559	146
1988	599	94	186	37	18	88	.311	.353	.462	128
1989	631	79	191	37	23	113	.303	.351	.477	133

The top WARs from 1984 to 1989 are as follows:

WAR	Player
47.7	Wade Boggs
41.1	Rickey Henderson
36.4	Cal Ripken, Jr.
35.8	Ozzie Smith
32.7	Alan Trammell
32.5	Tim Raines
31.9	Don Mattingly
31.2	Tony Gwynn
29.7	Ryne Sandberg
27.7	Jesse Barfield
27.5	Kirby Puckett

Unfortunately, Mattingly was unable to maintain his success, his career derailed by a back injury. Additionally, he had the misfortune of playing between Yankees dynasties, a fact not forgotten by the New York media. His only postseason appearance was in his final season. In the 5-game series loss to Seattle in the AL Division Series, Mattingly batted .417 with 6 RBIs. The Yankees would win the World Series the following season and 4 of the next 5…with Tino Martinez playing first base.

This is Mattingly’s 13^th season on the ballot and it looks like he may join Dale Murphy (above) on the list of players who spend the maximum number of years on the ballot without being elected. He gained 4% points last year to increase his total to 17.8%. He will probably take a small step back to 14%.

Mark McGwire

In 1999, Major League Baseball made the ridiculous decision to allow its All-Century team to be chosen by popular vote of the fans. First, a panel of experts assembled by MLB compiled a list of the top players in history. Over 2 millions fans then voted on the players using paper and online balloting. All living nominees were honored at the 1999 All Star Game and the All-Century Team was revealed during the World Series. The All-Century team was comprised of the top 2 vote-getters from each position, except outfielders (nine) and pitchers (six). A Blue Ribbon panel then added five players omitted by fan voting to create a thirty man team. Unfortunately, the panel could not correct all of the fans’ mistakes (Stan Musial as the 11^th greatest outfielder; Honus Wagner 4^th among shortstops; Warren Spahn, Christy Mathewson, and Lefty Grove 10^th, 14^th, and 18^th, respectively, among pitchers).

The list of 10 first basemen nominees with their corresponding vote totals are as such:

Name	Vote total
Lou Gehrig	1,207992
Mark McGwire	517,881
Jimmie Foxx	351,488
Harmon Killebrew	185,662
Eddie Murray	161,564
Hank Greenberg	114,317
Willie McCovey	106,717
George Sisler	28,378
Buck Leonard	20,098
Bill Terry	12,976

I’m not sure who Johnny Mize ticked off to be left off of this list. Anyway, aside from Buck Leonard, who was a Negro League nominee, here are the stats of the players above:

Name	WAR	WAR7	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Gehrig	108.5	65.7	1888	2721	534	493	1995	.340	.447	.632
McGwire	58.7	40.1	1167	1626	252	583	1414	.263	.394	.588
Foxx	92.5	57.5	1751	2646	458	534	1922	.325	.428	.609
Killebrew	55.8	35.9	1283	2086	290	573	1584	.256	.376	.509
Murray	63.4	37.2	1627	3255	560	504	1917	.287	.359	.476
Greenberg	55.1	45.9	1051	1628	379	331	1276	.313	.412	.605
McCovey	60.7	43.1	1229	2211	353	521	1555	.270	.374	.515
Sisler	51.1	45.3	1284	2812	425	102	1175	.340	.379	.468
Terry	52.1	39.9	1120	2193	373	154	1078	.341	.393	.506

 

Over a half million fans believed (at least in 1999), Mark McGwire was the greatest first baseman in history. This was enough for him to finish second in the balloting. Jimmie Foxx must have rolled over in his grave.

On a side note, you may have noticed McGwire’s strikingly low doubles total, an amount which is less than half as much as his home run total. Exactly how rare is that? Here is a list of the players who hit at least twice as many home runs as doubles, minimum 10 home runs:

Name	Years	AB	H	HR	2B	RBI
Mark McGwire	1986-2001	6187	1626	583	252	1414
Earl Wilson	1959-70	740	144	35	12	111
Wayne Belardi	1950-56	592	143	28	13	74
Danny Gardella	1944-50	543	145	24	12	85
Jack Harshman	1948-60	424	76	21	7	65
Kevin Roberson	1993-96	309	61	20	10	51
Norm Sherry	1959-63	497	107	18	9	69
Luis Medina	1988-91	150	31	10	1	16

Obviously, no one close to McGwire in total home runs achieved this feat. The number 2 man on this list was a pitcher with 121 career wins (Harshman was a pitcher as well).

Continue to Part III of our series on the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013.

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[i] But Albert Belle ranks 14^th and Juan Gonzalez is at 17.