Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013: Part III

This is the third of a 4 part look at the Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot for the Class of 2013, in which we attempt to predict the order the candidates will finish. Click here to read Part I or Part II.

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

Rafael Palmeiro

The members of the 3000 hit/500 home run club:

Name	All-Star Games	Top 5 MVP finishes
Hank Aaron	25	8
Willie Mays	24	9
Eddie Murray	8	6
Rafael Palmeiro	4	1

Palmeiro was not considered a Hall of Famer until he hit the 3000/500 magic numbers. Fans did not line up to see him. He was never the most feared hitter on his team. In fact, the only year he finished in the top 5 in MVP voting, he still finished behind one of his teammates (Ivan Rodriguez). Tim Kurkijan explains away his lack of support by stating, “Palmeiro received MVP votes in 10 seasons, though he never finished above fifth. But consider this: In his 20 seasons, he played on a team with a winning record in only seven seasons, he made it to the postseason only twice (he never played in the World Series) and in only three of his 18 non-playoff seasons did he play on a team that finished closer than 10 games out of first place. It should not be held against him that he played on non-contending teams for many, many years.”[i] Actually, Palmeiro appeared in the postseason three times but that is irrelevant. What Mr. Kurkijan fails to realize is that the reason Palmeiro did not receive much MVP support was not that his teams were bad, but that the MVP voters did not consider him to be valuable. In 18 of his 20 seasons, at least one of Palmeiro’s teammates received MVP votes, and in no season was he the only member of his team to receive a vote.[ii] In the 10 seasons he received MVP votes, one of his teammates finished ahead of him 7 times. In 1997, his Baltimore Orioles team had the best record in the American League, and Palmeiro finished 13^th in the voting, well behind teammate Randy Myers who finished 4^th. In 1999, the Texas Rangers won the American League West and Palmeiro finished 5^th with 4 first place votes, but still finished well behind teammate Ivan Rodriguez.

                    

Kurkijan also makes a passing comment about why Palmeiro only made 4 All-Star teams by saying, “in several years, his competition at first base was [Mark] McGwire and Frank Thomas.” Let’s look at the American League All-Star first basemen beginning with his first year in the American League (1989), in addition to the designated hitters beginning in 1999:

Year
1989	McGwire	Mattingly
1990	McGwire	Fielder
1991	Fielder	McGwire	Palmeiro
1992	McGwire
1993	Olerud	Fielder	Thomas
1994	Thomas	W. Clark
1995	Thomas	T. Martinez	McGwire	M. Vaughn
1996	M. Vaughn	McGwire	Thomas
1997	T. Martinez	McGwire	Thomas	Thome
1998	Thome	Palmeiro	M. Vaughn
1999	Thome	Coomer	Palmeiro(DH)
2000	Giambi	Delgado	McGriff	Sweeney	E. Martinez(DH)
2001	Olerud	T. Clark	Giambi	Sweeney	E. Martinez(DH)	G. Vaughn(DH)
2002	Giambi	Konerko	Sweeney
2003	Delgado	Giambi	E. Martinez(DH)	Sweeney(DH)	D. Young(DH)
2004	Giambi	K. Harvey	Ortiz(DH)
2005	Teixeira	Hillenbrand	Konerko	Ortiz(DH)	Sweeney(DH)

McGwire and Thomas only made 2 All-Star teams together. In 1996, they were joined by Mo Vaughn and in 1997 they were joined by Tino Martinez and Jim Thome. Contrary to Mr. Kurkijan’s sentiment, Thomas and McGwire did not prevent Palmeiro from playing in All-Star games. Heck, in 1992, McGwire was the only first baseman named to the team. Palmeiro was simply not a highly regarded player in his career.

What else Mr. Kurkijan? Well, “Compare Palmeiro among first basemen of all time. He has the fifth most RBIS…the fourth most home runs and the second most hits.” Very impressive. Anything else? “Palmeiro is the only player ever to hit at least 38 homers and drive in at least 100 runs nine years in a row.” Outstanding! But what does that mean in the era of 70-home run hitters? Let’s look at his OPS+. That’s his on base percentage plus slugging percentage adjusted for the park and the league in which he played. Here is how the first basemen rank (minimum 1000 career games):

Rank	Name	OPS+	Rank	Name	OPS+
1	Lou Gehrig	179	21	Jason Giambi	141
2	Dan Brouthers	170	22	Norm Cash	139
3	Albert Pujols	168	23	Carlos Delgado	138
4	Jimmie Foxx	163	24	David Ortiz	138
5	Mark McGwire	163	25	Travis Hafner	137
6	Johnny Mize	158	26	Will Clark	137
7	Hank Greenberg	158	27	Bill Terry	136
8	Frank Thomas	156	28	Adrian Gonzalez	136
9	Roger Connor	153	29	Todd Helton	135
10	Miguel Cabrera	151	30	Ryan Howard	135
11	Jeff Bagwell	149	31	Dolph Camili	135
12	Jim Thome	147	32	Frank Chance	135
13	Willie McCovey	147	33	Fred McGriff	134
14	Lance Berkman	146	34	John Kruk	134
15	Prince Fielder	144	35	Boog Powell	134
16	Harry Stovey	144	36	Orlando Cepeda	133
17	Harmon Killebrew	143	37	Charlie Hickman	133
18	Jack Fournier	142	38	Rafael Palmeiro	132
19	Cap Anson	142	39	Mo Vaughn	132
20	Henry Larkin	142	40	Mark Teixeira	131

That’s Palmeiro’s name near the bottom, tied with Mo Vaughn, and just behind Charlie “Piano Legs” Hickman. I offer my apologies to Mark McGwire for neglecting this statistic in his section (He is still not the second greatest first baseman of all time, though). Twelve of the players ahead of Palmeiro on this list are Hall of Famers. Trailing him are Eddie Murray (129), George Sisler (125), Jake Beckley (125), Jim Bottomley (125), Tony Perez (122), and High Pockets Kelly (109).

Let’s next look at Palmeiro’s peak, or lack thereof. WAR7 totals a player’s top 7 seasons in terms of Wins above Replacement, and those seasons are not necessarily consecutive. Where does Palmeiro rank among first basemen? Here’s the list:

First baseman	WAR7
Lou Gehrig	65.7
Albert Pujols	60.0
Jimmie Foxx	57.5
Johnny Mize	46.8
Jeff Bagwell	46.7
Hank Greenberg	45.9
Dan Brouthers	45.8
Roger Connor	45.3
George Sisler	45.3
Todd Helton	44.9
Frank Thomas	43.7
Willie McCovey	43.1
Cap Anson	40.4
Mark McGwire	40.1
Jason Giambi	39.9
Bill Terry	39.9
Jim Thome	39.3
Miguel Cabrera	38.6
Keith Hernandez	38.2
Dolph Camili	37.6
Lance Berkman	37.2
Eddie Murray	37.2
John Olerud	36.8
Rafael Palmeiro	36.6

That’s Palmeiro’s name at the end, beneath John Olerud and Dolph Camili. In Palmeiro’s defense, his WAR7 is ahead of Hall of Famers Harmon Killebrew, Tony Perez, Frank Chance, Orlando Cepeda, Jack Beckley, Jim Bottomley, and High Pockets Kelly, but he still trails 11 of the Hall of Fame first basemen.

To recap, Palmeiro is second all-time among first basemen in hits, 4^th in home runs, and fifth in RBIs. And the only Hall of Fame first basemen who rank behind him in both OPS+ and WAR7 are 3 dubious Veterans Committee selections (Beckley, Bottomley, and Kelly) and a man (Perez) selected in his 9^th year on the ballot.

Regardless, a positive test result for PED-usage makes his candidacy moot.

Bernie Williams

A 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner, and a former batting champion, Williams received 9.6% of the vote in his first year on the ballot. That total is unlikely to increase. The 1996 ALCS MVP, Williams trails only former teammate Derek Jeter in most postseason games played. However, his ALCS performances were dramatically different than his World Series performances. In 41 American League Championship Series games, Williams’ stat line is as follows:

AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	TB
162	31	52	10	9	33	4	.321	.413	.549	89

In 32 World Series Games:

AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	TB
120	16	25	3	5	14	2	.208	.319	.358	43

Nonetheless, Williams was a part of 4 World Series Champions.

In 2002, Williams collected 11 consecutive hits, joining the following list of players as the only ones to do so:

Player	Year	Number
Pinky Higgins	1938	12
Walt Dropo	1952	12
Tris Speaker	1920	11
Johnny Pesky	1946	11
Bernie Williams	2002	11

Kenny Lofton

Statistics can be twisted and used selectively enough to support many arguments. Kenny Lofton’s career WAR is 64.9, good for 104^th all-time, rates above Bob Feller, Dave Winfield, Eddie Murray, Jim Palmer, Duke Snider, Yogi Berra, Willie Stargell, George Sisler, Wee Willie Killer and so many more Hall of Famers to name. Lofton is not the 104^th greatest player in history. But he was a good ball-player who did many things well, not enough to join our “Vada Pinson All-Stars,” (see comment on Steve Finley) but enough to receive Hall of Fame votes. The fact is that Lofton was a terrific defensive player and he was one of the top, in terms of career value, leadoff hitters in history. He was not Rickey Henderson. He was not Pete Rose. He was not Tim Raines. But he got on base, stole bases, scored runs, and helped 11 teams reach the postseason.

                    

Statistics for leadoff hitters are difficult to come by, particularly since two of the best, Sliding Billy Hamilton and Dummy Hoy, played in an era from which we do not have adequate play-by-play sheets. In an attempt to handpick players with 5888 (Luis Aparicio’s career total) or more plate appearances as a leadoff hitter, I have these names, minus Rickey Henderson:

Player	PA	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP
Ashburn	6608	873	1712	202	22	363	166	89	877	397	.303	.399
Raines	6514	1011	1646	276	99	524	584	109	829	597	.294	.385
Hack	6292	939	1622	284	43	411	113	8	847	340	.302	.38
Rose	10710	1524	2924	517	117	803	125	101	1048	746	.308	.379
Butler	8432	1198	2091	250	46	501	483	231	992	792	.288	.374
Lofton	7929	1317	2065	336	119	660	552	149	826	891	.297	.371
Biggio	7297	1128	1800	426	181	686	238	82	704	1059	.284	.370
Ichiro	8141	1138	2445	281	97	609	424	98	492	764	.324	.368
Molitor	7291	1131	1953	338	138	653	370	100	654	760	.300	.365
Damon	7411	1179	1908	358	163	763	307	79	669	808	.288	.354
Pierre	6396	828	1711	201	15	406	457	156	361	367	.294	.343
Brock	8653	1254	2310	376	108	640	762	232	616	1302	.291	.343
Wills	6900	899	1787	147	20	386	521	186	484	570	.284	.335
Wilson	6350	919	1734	204	35	403	540	108	306	816	.292	.331
Aparicio	5888	724	1396	211	42	367	300	84	354	393	.258	.304

This is not a complete list. There may be players I have overlooked. Regardless, these players are ranked in terms of on base percentage. Again, these statistics are strictly those acquired as leadoff hitters, so these numbers do not match career values for anyone. Lofton’s run total trails only Pete Rose (and Rickey Henderson, of course), while his on base percentage lags behind Raines, Stan Hack, Rose, and Brett Butler (and of course Henderson). Lofton is ahead of several Hall of Famers and those who will receive more votes than him. His similarities to Butler are a little disconcerting. But Lofton was a very good baseball player. He will not receive enough votes to remain on the ballot, but he will not be shutout.

Julio Franco

Long before he became the oldest player to do almost everything, Franco was stuck in the Purgatory known as Cleveland in the 1980s. He lost 6 years on Indians teams that did not finish higher than 5^th place. In 1989 he escaped in a trade to Texas for Jerry Browne, Oddibe McDowell, and Pete O’Brien. He was named to the All-Star team each of the next three seasons while also winning 3 Silver Slugger Awards. He spent much of the rest of his career as a professional hitter, one who could probably still get a hit while sitting down.

Continue to Part IV of our series on the Baseball Hall of Fame Class of 2013.

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[i] Tim Kurkijan, Controversy follows Rafael Palmeiro,http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hof11/columns/story?columnist=kurkjian_tim&id=5947687 (December 28, 2010).

[ii] The 2 seasons in which neither he nor a teammate received MVP consideration were 1986, a season in which he only played 22 games, and 2000.