NFL HALL OF FAME CLASS OF 2013

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

Last month we attempted to predict the 15 finalists for the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2013. We correctly selected 13 of the 15, missing out on Kevin Greene and Edward DeBartolo, Jr. Both were finalists last year, but we inaccurately thought Paul Tagliabue might gain some support from the voters due to his role in Bountygate, while John Lynch might benefit from the voters awareness of their general lack of support for safeties. We were wrong on both counts. What we do know is that this class will be one of the most difficult to predict in recent memory. Why? Unlike the Baseball Hall of Fame, only five modern era candidates can gain induction in a given year. As a result, there is a significant backlog of legitimate candidates. Since 1970, approximately 81% of all finalists have ultimately gained election. That number rises to 87% when you remove players who are still on the ballot. Furthermore, of the players no longer eligible for the modern-era ballot, only 17 players were finalists multiple times but were not voted into the Hall. That number accounts for only 7% of all of the candidates (since 1970). In other words, 13 or 14 of the finalists on this year’s modern-era ballot will ultimately be enshrined in Canton. When a minimum of 13 finalists are future Hall of Famers, how does one predict which 5 will gain induction this year?

Well, let’s try anyway. First, we’ll break down the ballot by looking at voting tendencies.

 

This year’s ballot contains a very strong list of first-year eligible candidates: Larry Allen, Jonathan Ogden, Warren Sapp, and Michael Strahan. Many people are predicting all four to make it. However, there has never been a class with more than 3 first-time eligible players. 2006 was the last time, when Troy Aikman, Warren Moon, and Reggie White were all inducted. But 2 of those players were quarterbacks. And a quick look at a positional analysis of the Hall of Fame shows the love affair the voters have with the quarterback position. Of modern era players, the Hall of Fame contains 23 quarterbacks, compared to 21 wide receivers, 23 linebackers, and 23 defensive backs. In addition to the Class of 2006, 7 other classes (since 1970) have contained 3 first-time eligibles:

1977	Forrest Gregg	Gale Sayers	Bart Starr
1978	Lance Alworth	Ray Nitschke	Larry Wilson
1980	Deacon Jones	Bob Lilly	Jim Otto
1987	Mean Joe Greene	Jim Langer	Gene Upshaw
1990	Franco Harris	Jack Lambert	Tom Landry
1991	Earl Campbell	John Hannah	Jan Stenerud
1993	Dan Fouts	Chuck Noll	Walter Payton

Both the Classes of 1980 and 1987 contained 3 first-time eligible linemen. But it is hard to believe the voters will select 4 first-time linemen this year, especially considering only 7 linemen have been inducted in their first year of eligibility since 1987: John Hannah, Randy White, Anthony Munoz, Jackie Slater, Reggie White, Bruce Matthews, and Bruce Smith.

Next, of the 15 modern-era candidates, 3 are coaches or contributors. Some voters believe a coach or contributor should never take the spot of a player. As a result, it is unlikely multiple contributors are selected in a given year. The last time that occurred was 1997, when Wellington Mara and Don Shula were selected.

Finally, during the voting process, the voters first vote to narrow the list of 15 candidates to 10. They then vote again to narrow the list of 10 candidates to 5. The final list of 5 candidates then requires 80% of the vote to gain enshrinement. Of the final 10 candidates in 2011, 5 gained induction that year, while 4 gained induction the following year. Only Andre Reed was left out when Chris Doleman was selected over him. As a result, it is helpful to look at the 5 players remaining from the final 10 in the Class of 2012 ballot to begin our analysis. Those candidates are Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Charles Haley, Bill Parcells, and Aeneas Williams. These 5 were selected over Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Edward DeBartolo, Kevin Greene, and Will Shields last year, so it is probable (although not guaranteed) it will occur again. So our list of 15 is reduced to 10 as follows:

Larry Allen	Larry Allen
Jerome Bettis	Cris Carter
Tim Brown	Charles Haley
Cris Carter	Art Modell
Edward DeBartolo, Jr.	Jonathan Ogden
Kevin Greene	Bill Parcells
Charles Haley	Andre Reed
Art Modell	Warren Sapp
Jonathan Ogden	Michael Strahan
Bill Parcells	Aeneas Williams
Andre Reed
Warren Sapp
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Aeneas Williams

At this point it is important to note that we are not trying to predict the final 10, but the final 5. As such, we are not saying that Art Modell or all of 4 of the first-time eligible players will necessarily finish ahead of the eliminated 5 (Brown, Bettis, DeBartolo, Greene, and Shields). This is simply to say we find it doubtful that these 5 will suddenly vault past the 5 returning candidates who finished ahead of them last year. As a result, it is easier to eliminate them at this point in our discourse.

Speaking of Art Modell, this is the ideal time to touch on his candidacy. As we correctly predicted in a previous post, “When George Young died in December 2001, he was selected as a Hall of Fame finalist each of the next three years. This is perhaps due to the voters, all members of the sports media, reviewing his career as part of writing obituaries for their newspapers. Maybe this provided them with a new understanding and appreciation for his career. With Art Modell’s death in September, a similar effect may occur. A finalist in 2002, Modell was described as a ‘polarizing but iconic’ figure. Enough nice things were said about him upon his death that he may advance as a finalist.” George Young, however, has not been inducted. Modell may be aided by the fact the Baltimore Ravens, Modell’s former team, has advanced to the Super Bowl. The voters have shown a tendency to select candidates who played for the host Super Bowl team or one of the participating teams. This fact helps both DeBartolo, the former San Francisco 49ers owner, and Modell. But it won’t be enough this year. As noted above, the voters rarely elect multiple coaches or contributors in a given year. And this year, the only non-player selected will be Bill Parcells.

Last year, the Hall of Fame voters discussed Parcells’ candidacy for 57 minutes. As a result, he obviously is not regarded as an automatic lock. Perhaps it is because his only Super Bowl wins were while Bill Belichick was present, a man who has gone on to win more Super Bowls. Or maybe it is because he pissed off a lot of people over the years. Nonetheless, his absence from the Class of 2012 caused a large uproar among the fans. He is a Hall of Famer and we expect him to be selected this year.

That leaves us with 8 modern-era candidates for the final 4 spots: 2 offensive linemen, 3 defensive linemen, 2 wide receivers, and a defensive back. Many times, players from the same position cancel each other out, most notably among the receivers where Andre Reed, Cris Carter, and Tim Brown have been doing battle for years. We have discussed their candidacy at length in a previous post. Although not being elected, Reed has continued to finish ahead of Carter and Brown in the voting, signaling the voters obvious preference for him. The question remains if this is his year. With Marvin Harrison appearing on the ballot next year, and the likes of Terrell Owens looming, the voters are aware they need to clear up some of the backlog. Consequently, Andre Reed will finally receive his call to the Hall, while Cris Carter will have to wait another year.

Michael Strahan has been a walking advertisement since his retirement. Warren Sapp has been the opposite. They both have near identical resumes. Super Bowl champ. NFL Defensive Player of the Year. 7-time Pro Bowler. 4-time First Team AP All-Pro. 2-time Second Team AP All-Pro. Member of the All-Decade Team (although Sapp is a member of the All-Decade Teams for both the 1990s and 2000s). Strahan was a defensive end while Sapp was a defensive tackle, but both terrorized quarterbacks. Strahan is criticized for breaking the single-season sack record when Brett Favre fell down in front of him. Sapp is criticized for taking plays off. Strahan is generally liked by the media while Sapp is not. But most NFL teams are trying to find the next Warren Sapp. He was the centerpiece of the Tampa-2 and helped turn around a pitiful franchise. They both seem like first-ballot locks. But will either get in? Things are complicated by the presence of Charles Haley on the ballot.

A 5-time Super Bowl champ, Haley was named to “only” 5 Pro-Bowl teams and tabbed a 1^st Team AP All-Pro twice. But he was a key part of 5 Super Bowl champions. He recorded 100.5 sacks, well behind Strahan’s 141.5. But he was a key part of 5 Super Bowl champions. That carries a lot of weight with the voters. So much so it was worth mentioning three times. He wasn’t as dominant as Sapp. But Sapp has pissed off so many people he will probably have to wait until next year. Strahan is an enigma because his face is everywhere right now. But we predict Charles Haley will join the Class of 2013. Sapp will join the Class of 2014. And Strahan will be a member of one of them. But since we do not hedge our bets at the Highway to Hall, we predict Strahan will wait one year and join Sapp as part of the Class of 2014.

That leads us to our next position: defensive back. Luckily, there is only one defensive back on the ballot: Aeneas Williams. A 3-time 1^st Team AP All-Pro and a 2-time 2^nd team All-Pro, Williams was named to 8 Pro Bowls. Stuck with the Cardinals for so many years, Williams intercepted 55 passes in his career and is 5^th on the All-Time list with 13 non-offensive touchdowns. A great player, Williams is aided by the fact no one will steal his votes. He is the nominee we are least confident in. Nonetheless, we predict he will be a member of the Class of 2013.

 

Our final spot reserved for modern-era candidates comes down to Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden. Allen was a 6-time First Team AP All-Pro and a 1-time Second Team AP All-Pro. He was named to 11 Pro Bowls and is a member of the All-Decade Teams for both the 1990s and the 2000s. He won a Super Bowl Ring with the Dallas Cowboys in Super Bowl XXX. Ogden was a 4-time First Team AP All-Pro and a 4-time Second Team AP All-Pro. Named to 11 Pro Bowls, Ogden was selected as NFL Alumni Offensive Lineman of the Year in 2002 and was named to the All Decade team of the 2000s. He was a member of the Super Bowl XXXV winning Baltimore Ravens. Both were dominant players and will gain induction soon. Ogden may be aided by the Ravens presence in this year’s Super Bowl. But we give the edge to Allen, due to his versatility and association with the dynastic Cowboys, to be the final member of the Class of 2013.

We discussed the 2 Seniors Committee nominees in a previous post. As noted at that time, Curley Culp will be the only one selected for the Class of 2013.

 

The Class of 2013 will be as follows:

Larry Allen

Curley Culp

Charles Haley

Bill Parcells

Andre Reed

Aeneas Williams

The fans will be outraged that Carter, Odgen, Sapp, and Strahan were not selected. In small part due to this, in small part due to the lack of quality first-time candidates next year, and in large part due to the fact these are the best returning candidates on next year’s ballot, the Class of 2014 will consist of:

Derrick Brooks

Cris Carter

Jonathan Ogden

Warren Sapp

Michael Strahan

Of course, if any of these players are inducted this year, we reserve the right to amend our predictions prior to the announcement of the Class of 2014.

But we believe Allen, Culp, Haley, Parcells, Reed, and Williams will comprise the NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2013. Please post any comments you have to the contrary. Just remember, this is what we expect will happen, not what we think should happen.