NFL Hall of Fame Class of 2014

By Dan Trammel
@HighwayToHall

On Saturday, the NFL Hall of Fame will announce the members of the Class of 2014. While last year was one of the most difficult classes to predict, this one will be easy. With three first-year eligible locks, a 2^nd year candidate caught in a numbers crunch last year, and a candidate who has been gaining momentum in recent elections, this is a simple class to assess.

Last year, the voters, for only the ninth time since the 1970 NFL-AFL Merger, selected three players in their first year of eligibility. We believe the voters will do so again.

This year’s first-time nominees are Buccaneer linebacker Derrick Brooks, Colt wide receiver Marvin Harrison, Seahawk tackle Walter Jones, and head coach Tony Dungy.

Brooks teamed with fellow finalist John Lynch and Hall of Famer Warren Sapp to form one of the great defenses in NFL history and help Tampa end a streak of 14 consecutive losing seasons with 6-straight seasons with a winning percentage of .500 or better, which included 5 playoff appearances.

In a 14-year career, Brooks’ accolades are as follows:

11 Pro Bowls

5-time 1^st Team All-Pro

4-time 2^nd Team All-Pro

2002 NFL Defensive Player of the Year

Member of the 2000s All-Decade Team

Member of the Super Bowl XXXVII Champions

Of the 30 defensive players named to 8 or more Pro Bowls while being selected a 1^st-Team All-Pro 5 or more times, all 26 eligible for the Hall have been inducted, with Brooks, Ray Lewis, Junior Seau, and Ed Reed waiting their turns. Brooks won’t wait long. He walks in on the first ballot.

Our next first year eligible player is Harrison. Let’s begin by looking at Harrison’s numbers, and where they rank on the career lists.

Receptions	Receiving Yards	Receiving TDs	Receiving Yds/G	TDs
1102	14580	128	76.7	128
3rd	6th	5th	4th	9th

Harrison was named to 8 straight Pro Bowls, was named a 1^st-Team All-Pro 3 times, was named a 2^nd Team All-Pro 5 times, and was selected to the 2000s All-Decade Team. He also caught a pass in all 190 games in which he played.

Receiving numbers have become increasingly inflated in recent years. As a result, it is more difficult to evaluate receivers. For example, of the 13 players with 8 or more 1000 receiving yard seasons, only Steve Largent retired before the 2000s started. Most of the receivers are contemporaries and will compete with each other for the few Hall of Fame spots each year. As time goes on, and more receivers appear on the ballot, they will continue to cancel each other out. Although receiving numbers are inflated in this generation, Harrison’s numbers are overwhelming.

What hurts Marvin Harrison, oddly enough, is that he made the game of football look too easy. Though they only won 1 Super Bowl, Harrison and Peyton Manning were virtually unstoppable. Some have criticized Harrison’s credentials by saying he played with Manning. Of the 22 modern era Hall of Fame wide receivers, 14 caught most of their touchdown passes by Hall of Fame quarterbacks. Punishing Harrison for playing with Manning is ridiculous. Not only was Harrison a 3-time 1^st Team All-Pro, 5 times he was a 2^nd Team All-Pro. His numbers are historically great. Part of the reason a receiver (Cris Carter) was selected last year, was the voters’ awareness of the growing backlog of receivers. Adding Harrison to the trio of Brown, Carter, and Reed would have been a nightmare for the voters.

The next candidate, Walter Jones, played in a strong era for offensive tackles. Richmond Webb, Erik Williams, Willie Roaf, Tony Boselli, Jonathan Ogden, Willie Anderson, and Orlando Pace all served as contemporaries to Mr. Jones. With these men playing at the same time, there were not a lot of All-Pro spots available. Things were further complicated when Larry Allen spent time at tackle and took post-season honors away from some of these players.

Nonetheless, Walter Jones was selected to 9 Pro Bowls, named a 1^st Team All-Pro 4 times, and named a 2^nd Team All-Pro twice. He was chosen a 1^st team member of the All-Decade Team of the 2000s alongside 2013 Hall of Fame selection Jonathan Ogden. He helped the Seahawks to 6 playoff appearances, spending his entire career with the club, appearing in 180 regular season games.

His accolades place him in some exclusive company. 15 offensive linemen have earned 4+ 1^st Team All-Pro selections since the 1970 NFL-AFL merger: 12 current Hall of Famers, 2 players not yet eligible, and Mr. Jones.

Walter Jones stands among the all-time greats. Despite playing during a wonderful era of offensive tackles, Jones collected enough accolades to join some impressive company. He consistently erased the opponent’s top pass rusher while opening gaping holes for Shaun Alexander. Like Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden last year, Jones will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer.

The final first-year nominee is Tony Dungy. In 13 seasons as a head coach, Dungy posted a career record of 139-69, which included 10 double-digit win seasons and 11 playoff appearances. In only one season, his first in Tampa, did a Dungy team fail to finish with a winning record. He also won a Super Bowl with the Indianapolis Colts, making him the first African-American head coach to do so. Dungy is certainly a Hall of Famer…but not this year. The coaches elected in their first year of eligibility are Don Shula (1997), Chuck Noll (1993), and Tom Landry (1990). These men make up the Mount Rushmore of coaches (or at least are in the discussion). Dungy falls just short.

We next need to mention John Lynch and Morten Andersen who, although not in their first year of eligibility, are first-time finalists. Andersen is trying to become only the 2^nd kicker to make the Hall of Fame, oddly during a year when one of the Seniors Committee nominees is a punter. And Lynch is the first safety to be a finalist since 2002. Only nine safeties are in the Hall of Fame and the career of only one (Ronnie Lott) began after the NFL-AFL Merger. Some of the voters are anxious to discuss a safety. That will be enough for Lynch to make it pass the first cut. But it will take a couple of years before his candidacy gains enough momentum to carry him into Canton.

To assess the remaining candidates, and therefore select the final 2 inductees, it is useful to look at the process. The voters first narrow the list of 15 candidates to 10. They then vote again to narrow the list of 10 candidates to five. The final list of five candidates then requires 80 percent of the vote to gain enshrinement. Of the final 10 candidates in 2011, five gained induction that year, while four gained induction the following year. Only Andre Reed was left out when Chris Doleman was selected over him. In contrast, of the final 10 candidates in 2012, five gained induction that year while only 2 gained induction the following year, as 3 first-year nominees earned the remaining spots. As such, let’s look at the players remaining from the final 10 last year to continue our analysis. Those candidates are Michael Strahan, Charles Haley, Jerome Bettis, Andre Reed, and Aeneas Williams. These five were selected over Tim Brown, Edward DeBartolo, Kevin Greene and Will Shields last year, so it is probable (although not guaranteed) it will occur again. So when the selectors vote to narrow the field from 15 to 10, Brown, Debartolo, Greene, Shields, and Andersen will be eliminated.

As for the remaining five candidates, Reed’s case is hurt by Harrison, just as in past years he was hurt by the presence of Cris Carter and Tim Brown. Although Reed performed better in the postseason, he also had the misfortune of playing in Buffalo in the winter. Reed will find his way to Canton one day, but not this season.

Last year, Bettis finally made it beyond the first round of cuts. But he consistently has been eliminated before Reed, Williams, and Haley in previous elections so there is no reason to believe the voters will favor him more this year.

Michael Strahan has been a walking advertisement since his retirement. Despite Hall of Famer Warren Sapp’s outspoken criticism of him, they both have near identical resumes. Super Bowl champ; NFL Defensive Player of the Year; seven-time Pro Bowler; four-time First Team AP All-Pro; two-time Second Team AP All-Pro, and member of the All-Decade Team. Strahan was a defensive end while Sapp was a defensive tackle, but both terrorized quarterbacks. Strahan is criticized for breaking the single-season sack record when Brett Favre fell down in front of him. Sapp is criticized for taking plays off.

Strahan’s candidacy is complicated by the presence of Charles Haley on the ballot. Many times, players from the same position compete for votes, and ultimately cancel each other out. Haley was named to "only" five Pro-Bowl teams and named a First Team AP All-Pro twice. He recorded 100.5 sacks, well behind Strahan's 141.5. But he was a key part of five Super Bowl champions. That carries a lot of weight with the voters. And his Hall of Fame case has been gaining momentum in recent years.

Our final candidate is Aeneas Williams. A three-time First Team AP All-Pro and a two-time Second Team All-Pro, Williams was named to eight Pro Bowls. Stuck with the Cardinals for so many years, Williams intercepted 55 passes in his career and is fifth on the all-time list with 13 non-offensive touchdowns. A great player, Williams is aided by the fact no one will steal his votes. But we believe he falls just short as we predict both Strahan and Haley will join the Class of 2014. If the rules allowed the Hall to select 6 modern-era nominees for induction, Williams would be the 6^th name.

That leaves us with a projected Class of 2014 as follows:

Derrick Brooks

Charles Haley

Marvin Harrison

Walter Jones

Michael Strahan

2015 features a “weak” class of first-year eligible players, including Kurt Warner, Orlando Pace, Junior Seau, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce, and Edgerrin James. Although 1 or 2 of these players will gain election, next year will be a great opportunity to free up some of the backlog that has been building in recent years. 

Brian Waters: Good Player, but Not a Hall of Famer.

By Dan Trammel
@HighwayToHall

While discussing Clemson T/G Brandon Thomas at the Senior Bowl last week, MMQB writer Greg A. Bedard commented, “His smart, savvy and tough play reminds me a bit of future Hall of Fame guard Brian Waters.”

We at the Highway to Hall love such remarks. Let’s take a moment to discuss Waters’ Hall of Fame case.

Waters was a tight end and defensive end in high school in Waxahachie, Texas. At North Texas, he played tight end his first 3 seasons, catching 86 passes for 975 yards and nine touchdowns, including a team-leading 28 receptions in 1996. Before his senior season, a new coaching staff switched Waters to defensive tackle, where he was named 1^st Team All-Big West.

Undrafted, Waters attended training camp with the Dallas Cowboys as an H-back, but was released on the final cut-down day.

He signed with the Chiefs, who tried him out as a center. Kansas City sent him to NFL Europe to learn the position, and he started every game at center for the Berlin Thunder in 2000.

He spent the 2000 NFL season playing special teams and learning the nuances of the center position from Tim Grunhard, while serving as the backup to Casey Wiegmann.

After Wiegemann underwent an emergency appendectomy on August 27, Waters was inserted into the starting lineup for the 2001 season opener. But he and quarterback Trent Green got crossed up twice, each time losing the ball. One fumble cost the Chiefs an opportunity at a short field goal while the other put Oakland in position to score in what turned out to be a 27-24 Raider victory. Wiegemann got healthy in a hurry and Waters was again relegated to a backup role.

But the Chiefs experienced numerous injuries along the offensive line that season. When Victor Riley was injured, left guard Marcus Spears was moved to right tackle to replace him. Donald Willis was inserted into the lineup as the left guard. But when he went down with a calf strain, Waters replaced him as the starting left guard. In his first game, Waters was matched up with Hall of Famer John Randle. The Chiefs rushed for 188 yards on 44 carries, with Priest Holmes totaling 120 yards on 26 carries, becoming only the 2^nd (of 4) 100-yard rusher against the Seahawks that season (Stephen Davis, Terrell Davis, and Holmes again also achieved the feat). When Waters was inserted into the starting lineup, the Chiefs were 2-7, but they went 4-3 the rest of the way and Holmes won the rushing title.

Following the season, the Chiefs signed Hall of Famer Willie Roaf to play left tackle. They moved John Tait to right tackle. They were already set with Will Shields at right guard and Casey Wiegmann at center. With Waters as the new left guard, the Chiefs boasted one of the top offensive lines in the NFL.

Between 2002 and 2005, the Chiefs offense ranked as follows:

Season	Points Scored	NFL Rank	Total Yards	NFL Rank
2002	467	1	6000	4
2003	484	1	5910	2
2004	483	2	6695	1
2005	403	6	6192	1

During this time, the Chiefs defense failed to carry its weight, and Kansas City only reached the playoffs once, a 38-31 loss to the Colts in 2003.

In 2006, following the retirement of Roaf, the Chiefs slipped to 15^th in points and 16^th in yards. In 2007, following the retirement of Shields, the Chiefs plummeted to 31^st in both points and yards.

Waters remained with Kansas City through the 2010 season, but the Chiefs did not finish higher than 14^th in points or 12^th in yards in any of the subsequent seasons.

In 2011, Waters moved on to New England, where he helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl and he finally enjoyed some playoff success. The Pats went 13-3 and its offense ranked in the top 3. But the season before, the Pats finished 14-2 and ranked 1^st in points, and a season later, the Pats finished 12-4 and ranked 1^st in points. So it is difficult to see if Waters was much of a difference maker.

He sat out 2012 before signing with the Cowboys for the 2013 season. After 7 games, he tore a triceps muscle and missed the remainder of the season.

In his career, Waters was named to 6 Pro Bowls and was selected a 1^st Team All-Pro twice. He paved the way for eight 1000-yard rushers. He was also named the Walter Payton Man of the Year in 2009 for his excellence on the field combined with his humanitarian efforts away from it.

Let’s now look at the modern-era guards currently enshrined in Canton:

Name	Pro Bowls	1st Team All-Pro	2nd Team All-Pro	All-Decade
Bruce Matthews	14	7	3	Yes
Randall McDaniel	12	7	2	Yes
Larry Allen	11	6	1	Yes
Tom Mack	11	1	3	No
John Hannah	9	7	3	Yes
Mike Munchak	9	2	6	Yes
Billy Shaw	8	5	1	Yes
Stan Jones	7	3	1	No
Gene Upshaw	7	5	4	Yes
Joe DeLamielleure	6	3	4	Yes
Gene Hickerson	6	3	1	Yes
Larry Little	5	5	2	Yes
Russ Grimm	4	3	1	Yes

With only two 1^st or 2^nd Team All-Pro selections, Waters trails every man on this list. Only twice was he considered among the top 4 players at his position.

And although Little and Grimm were named to fewer Pro Bowls, they were both key members of dynastic championship teams. Waters never won a Super Bowl. Although this is true of several players listed above, Waters failed to achieve the accolades of the others.

And his failure to appear on the All-Decade Team will pretty much seal his Hall of Fame fate. 35 guards have been named to the All-Decade teams, of which 16 are enshrined in Canton. The only 2 to overcome this obstacle were Mack and Jones, who were inducted in their 16^th and 19^th years of eligibility respectively.

Two things work against Waters. First, for 4 seasons the Chiefs possessed one of the top offenses in football. During those years, the presence of Roaf and Shields overshadowed Waters. And when the Chiefs lost those two players, Kansas City’s offense struggled.

Second, Waters entered the NFL as an undrafted free agent without a position. Let’s look at the above players and when they were selected in the NFL or AFL Draft:

Name	Round	Pick
Tom Mack	1	2
John Hannah	1	4
Mike Munchak	1	8
Bruce Matthews	1	9
Gene Upshaw	1	17
Randall McDaniel	1	19
Joe DeLamielleure	1	26
Billy Shaw	2	11
Larry Allen	2	46
Russ Grimm	3	69
Stan Jones	5	54
Gene Hickerson	7	78
Larry Little	N/A	N/A

The list is dominated by 1^st Round picks, and only Little, who failed to be drafted, was not selected among the top 78 picks. I’m not sure what this tells us. Perhaps NFL scouts are terrific at evaluating guards. Or, similar to the difficulty preseason unranked college football teams face in climbing the polls, it is harder for players who enter the NFL with zero fanfare, particularly those who play a position without statistics, to garner the respect of outside sources. Either way, it wasn’t until his third season as a full-time starter, and fifth season overall, before Waters earned Pro Bowl honors. For a player who “only” had 10 seasons as a full-time starter, that is difficult to overcome.

To make a Hall of Fame argument for Waters, one has to contend, similar to Bert Blyleven’s supporters, that everyone who saw him play missed how great/dominant he was. But unlike Blyleven, it is next to impossible to support that argument when the man played a position that lacks statistics. And needless to say, one cannot support Waters’ candidacy until his more celebrated contemporaries are enshrined, namely Shields, Alan Faneca, and Steve Hutchinson. When that happens, if anyone brings up Waters’ name, Steve Wisniewski, Jerry Kramer, Bob Kuechenberg, Walt Sweeney, and Ed Budde will join the discussion. 

Frankly, there just isn’t enough room in the Hall for all of these guards.

So, no, sorry Mr. Bedard, Brian Waters is not a future Hall of Famer.