McGriff Belongs in Cooperstown

By Dan Trammel
@HighwayToHall

IBM Presents: You make the call.[1] A man, let’s call him Fred, is a college student. All of his courses are graded on a curve. He receives all A’s and B’s his first 2 years of school. His final two years, however, many of the other students cheat. As a result, most of these students score higher than Fred who chose not to cheat. Even though his test scores are comparable to what they were his first two years, after the curve is factored in, he is now a C-student. As a result, he no longer makes the Dean’s List and he does not graduate with Honors. Upon graduation, it is discovered half the school cheated and the ensuing scandal rocks the nation. None of the cheaters can find jobs. Unfortunately, neither can Fred. Potential employers continue to focus on his grades. “You didn’t make Dean’s List.” “You didn’t graduate with honors.” “Your grades don’t compare to other people in your class.” Fred just wants to scream, “They all cheated. Their cheating prevented me from graduating with honors. Why are you comparing me to them?”

How do we resolve this situation? What would be the fair thing to do? You make the call.

While you ponder that, let’s discuss the Hall of Fame candidacy of Fred McGriff.

 

 

First, here is McGriff’s career line:

PA	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
10174	1349	2490	441	493	1550	.284	.377	.509	.886

Next, let’s talk about the pre-PED era company McGriff shares with these numbers. Through 2000, 9 players in history retired with 10,000+ plate appearances and an OPS of .886 or higher. The list is so impressive, first names are not necessary: Ruth, Musial, Ott, Cobb, Mays, Aaron, Speaker, Robinson, and Schmidt.[2]

Let’s look at another list. Through 2000, 17 men collected 2000 hits, 450 home runs, 1500 RBIs, and 1000 walks. Once again, we will skip the first names: Ruth, Williams, Gehrig. Foxx, Mantle, Musial, Ott, Mays, Aaron, Robinson, Schmidt, McCovey, Killebrew, Jackson, Yastrzemski, Murray, and Winfield. In fact, as of McGriff’s retirement in 2004, this list included 20 men, the aforementioned 17 Hall of Famers, and McGriff, Bonds, and Palmeiro.[3]

That is certainly a good start to support McGriff’s candidacy. What else can we present? We discussed McGriff last year when we evaluated each player on the ballot, let’s present that information again.

In 1992, McGriff led the National League with 35 homers, the lowest total to lead the National League in a non-strike season since Ralph Kiner hit 23 in 1946. Although his home run numbers may look pedestrian now after the “Juiced Ball Era,” McGriff was one of the top power hitters of his time, finishing in the top 10 among all Major Leaguers in homers 7 consecutive seasons. How rare is that? Here’s the list:

Number of times	Player	Years
16	Babe Ruth	1918-33
14	Lou Gehrig	1925-38
12	Jimmie Foxx	1929-40
9	Hank Aaron	1965-73
9	Eddie Mathews	1952-60
9	Mel Ott	1931-39
9	Mike Schmidt	1979-87
8	Gavvy Cravath	1912-19
8	Joe DiMaggio	1936-42, 46
8	Ralph Kiner	1946-53
8	Mickey Mantle	1954-61
7	Napoleon Lajoie	1897-1903
7	Fred McGriff	1988-94
7	Frank Robinson	1956-62
7	Harry Stovey	1880-86
7	Cy Williams	1918-24
7	Ken Williams	1921-27

The list above contains twelve Hall of Famers, 4 non-Hall of Famers born before Babe Ruth, and Fred McGriff. McGriff was the last player to join this group and the first since Mike Schmidt, who in turn was the first since Hank Aaron. Not only was McGriff one of the top power hitters of his generation, he was a model of consistency. Fifteen times he hit twenty or more home runs, to join this illustrious group:

Seasons	Player
20	Hank Aaron
19	Barry Bonds
17	Willie Mays
17	Frank Robinson
16	Babe Ruth
16	Ted Williams
16	Jim Thome
16	Reggie Jackson
16	Eddie Murray
15	Fred McGriff
15	Mel Ott
15	Willie Stargell
15	Dave Winfield
15	Ken Griffey, Jr.
15	Alex Rodriguez

McGriff was a feared part of any lineup he was in, but never more so than when he was traded to Atlanta. In 1993, McGriff was traded from San Diego to Atlanta and his second half tear helped the Braves hold off San Francisco (who finished 103-59) to win the National League West. That season with the Braves he batted .310 with 19 home runs and 55 RBIs and led them to a 51-19 record after his arrival. In the National League Championship Series against Philadelphia, McGriff batted .435 with 4 RBIs but the Braves lost in 6 games. In 1994, McGriff batted .310 with 34 home runs before the season was called because of the player strike. McGriff led Atlanta to the next two World Series, winning one title in 1995 against Cleveland. In 50 career postseason games, McGriff batted .303 with 10 home runs and 37 RBIs.

 

 

McGriff was also the quintessential cleanup hitter. Only 3 men (statistics dating back to 1916) have 7,000 or more plate appearances as a cleanup hitter: Eddie Murray, McGriff, and Lou Gehrig. Only 14 men have 6,000 or more plate appearances: Murray, McGriff, Gehrig, Jim Bottomley, Willie McCovey, Willie Stargell, Greg Luzinski, Dave Winfield, Albert Belle, Manny Ramirez, Joe Medwick, Carlos Delgado, Joe DiMaggio, and Frank Robinson (9 Hall of Famers and counting).

Among cleanup hitters, McGriff ranks 2^nd in plate appearances behind Murray, 5^th in runs behind Gehrig, Murray, DiMaggio, and Ramirez, 3^rd in hits (Murray and Gehrig), 3^rd in RBIs (Murray and Gehrig), and 4^th in HRs (Gehrig, Ramirez, and Belle).

All of these credentials are quite impressive. Unfortunately, McGriff retired with 493 home runs. The strike quite possibly cost him the 7 home runs needed to reach 500.

Now, this is a good spot to look at the arguments against him. Let’s begin by looking at Jay Jaffe’s presentation:

“Despite the lack of 500 homers, McGriff’s case for Cooperstown appears to have some merit; he scores 100 (“a good possibility”) on the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor for his five All-Star appearances, two home run titles and postseason performances, and 48 (slightly below average) on James’ Hall of Fame Standards metric, which similarly credits him for career accomplishments relative to players already in the Hall. That said, he never won an MVP award and had just one top-five finish in the voting, and he didn’t add anything with his defense.”[4]

It is certainly true McGriff brought nothing to the table with his defense. That we can’t change. But what about the other arguments? He never won an MVP award and had just one top-five finish. Now we get into the “guys were cheating” argument, as well as the “How do we evaluate Colorado’s hitters” argument. In 1988, Mike Greenwell finished second in MVP voting to Jose Canseco. After Canseco’s admission of steroid usage, Greenwell asked, “Where’s my MVP? [Canseco’s] an admitted steroid user. I was clean. If they’re going to start putting asterisks by things, let’s put one by the MVP.”[5] But let’s not stop there. Let’s put asterisks by the MVP voting as a whole. And not just due to PED-users, but the hitting environment in Colorado.

In 1995, McGriff finished 20^th in MVP voting. Dante Bichette, 1 of 4 Colorado players to receive MVP votes, finished 2^nd. In 71 games in Colorado, he batted .377 with 31 homers, 83 RBIs, and a 1.152 OPS. In 68 road games, he batted .300, with 9 homers, 45 RBIs, and an OPS of .802. McGriff didn’t have an astounding season, but batted .280 with 27 homers, 93 RBIs, and an .850 OPS in a strike-shortened season (he played in a league leading 144 games). His home/road splits were comparable, though he hit for a higher average at home. Should McGriff have finished in the top-5. Who knows? But thanks to PEDs and Colorado, McGriff’s strongest attributes were diminished. Players like Palmeiro, Mo Vaughn, and Rico Brogna finished with higher WARs that season.

Jaffe continues, “In all, he’s 13 wins below the career WAR standard among first basemen and 6.3 wins—nearly one per year—below the peak standard. His JAWS falls 9.7 shy of the standard for first baseman, good enough for 27^th on the all-time list…While it would be a nice moral to the story if McGriff were to gain entry to Cooperstown while those connected to PEDs remained outside, as it is, he just doesn’t quite have the numbers. It bears remembering that at least via JAWS, McGriff isn’t being measured against McGwire and Palmeiro but against those already enshrined at his position, such as Gehrig, Perez, Eddie Murray, Hank Greenberg and Jimmie Foxx.”

This is the biggest problem with the arguments against McGriff. They are all premised on false logic. If you look at WAR, OPS+, or JAWS, you are directly measuring him against all of the PED users. Let’s take a look at McGriff’s career arch. The following table, with modifications, was borrowed from ESPN’s David Schoenfield.[6] It shows how McGriff ranked among first basemen on a yearly basis in several categories. Note the drop off in his overall rankings between 1994 and 1995.

	HR	Rank	RBI	Rank	OPS	Rank	OPS+	Rank	WAR	Rank	oWAR	Rank
1988	34	1st	82	9th	.928	1st	157	2nd	6.2	2nd	5.1	4th
1989	36	1st	92	8th	.924	2nd	165	2nd	6.7	2nd	6.2	2nd
1990	35	3rd	88	6th	.930	3rd	153	3rd	5.2	3rd	5.5	2nd
1991	31	2nd	106	3rd	.890	3rd	147	3rd	3.3	8th	4.3	4th
1992	35	2nd	104	3rd	.950	3rd	165	3rd	5.2	3rd	5.3	3rd
1993	37	2nd	101	5th	.924	5th	144	7th	4.2	8th	4.2	7th
1994	34	3rd	94	3rd	1.012	3rd	157	3rd	4.5	3rd	3.9	3rd
1995	27	9th	93	8th	.850	9th	119	9th	1.5	12th	1.7	13th
1996	28	11th	107	12th	.859	9th	120	11th	1.6	15th	2	13th
1997	22	15th	97	13th	.797	18th	106	19th	0.2	20th	0.9	20th
1998	19	19th	81	21st	.815	18th	111	18th	2.9	13th	2	18th
1999	32	9th	104	11th	.957	6th	142	4th	4	8th	4.6	5th
2000	27	14th	106	8th	.826	18th	110	20th	0.2	24th	1.7	19th
2001	31	10th	102	9th	.930	7th	144	6th	3.7	10th	3.7	10th
2002	30	6th	103	7th	.858	12th	125	12th	2.1	14th	2.7	12th

In 1991, his 31 homers and 106 RBIs were good for 2^nd and 3^rd respectively. Ten years later, his 31 homers and 102 RBIs in 2001 ranked 10^th and 9^th. His .890 OPS in 1991 was good for 3^rd, whereas his .930 OPS in 2001 ranked only 9^th. As such, his 147 OPS+ in 1991, which ranked 3^rd, fell to 144 in 2001 and was good for only 6^th. Similarly, the 4.3 oWAR in 1991, which ranked 4^th, became 3.7 in 2001 and ranked 10^th.

Between 1988 and 1994, among players with at least 100 plate appearances, only Frank Thomas and Barry Bonds posted a higher OPS+ than McGriff. In fact, let’s take a look at McGriff’s rankings among first basemen between 1988 and 1994.

Rank	WAR		oWAR		OPS+
1	Fred McGriff	35.3	Fred McGriff	34.5	Frank Thomas	184
2	Will Clark	32.8	Will Clark	32.5	Fred McGriff	155
3	Rafael Palmeiro	29.9	Frank Thomas	31.9	Jeff Bagwell	155
4	Frank Thomas	28.7	Rafael Palmeiro	26.5	Will Clark	146
5	Jeff Bagwell	23	Mark McGwire	20.8	Mark McGwire	140
6	Mark McGwire	22.8	Jeff Bagwell	20.5	John Olerud	137
7	Mark Grace	21.4	John Kruk	19.3	John Kruk	134
8	John Kruk	19.1	Mark Grace	18	Rafael Palmeiro	132
9	John Olerud	17.8	Cecil Fielder	16.7	Cecil Fielder	130
10	Wally Joyner	17.1	Kent Hrbek	16.3	Randy Milligan	128
11	Don Mattingly	17	John Olerud	15.6	Kent Hrbek	127
12	Kent Hrbek	16.3	Wally Joyner	15	Glenn Davis	126
13	Cecil Fielder	15.3	Don Mattingly	14.3	Mo Vaughn	125
14	Eddie Murray	14	Randy Milligan	13.1	Alvin Davis	125
15	Dave Magadan	13.8	Eddie Murray	12.8	Hal Morris	121
16	Andres Galarraga	13.5	Andres Galarraga	12.6	Andres Galarraga	119
17	Randy Milligan	13.3	Dave Magadan	11.7	Mark Grace	119
18	Glenn Davis	11.5	Glenn Davis	11.1	Eddie Murray	119
19	Hal Morris	9.2	Alvin Davis	8.9	Nick Esasky	119
20	Alvin Davis	7.9	Hal Morris	8.3	Wally Joyner	117

McGriff leads in both WAR and oWAR and trails only Thomas in OPS+. Now let’s look at where he stands between 1995 and 2002.

Rank	WAR		oWAR		OPS+
1	Jeff Bagwell	48.6	Jim Thome	47.2	Mark McGwire	183
2	Jim Thome	44.4	Jeff Bagwell	46.4	Jim Thome	159
3	Rafael Palmeiro	36.7	Jason Giambi	39.7	Jeff Bagwell	155
4	Jason Giambi	36.3	Mark McGwire	38.1	Jason Giambi	152
5	John Olerud	35.9	Rafael Palmeiro	33.8	Todd Helton	142
6	Mark McGwire	34.3	John Olerud	30.3	Carlos Delgado	142
7	Todd Helton	28.8	Carlos Delgado	30.2	Rafael Palmeiro	140
8	Carlos Delgado	28.6	Mo Vaughn	24.9	Mo Vaughn	136
9	Mark Grace	25.6	Todd Helton	24.6	John Olerud	131
10	Mo Vaughn	22.5	Mark Grace	21	Erubiel Durazo	128
11	Tino Martinez	21.1	Fred McGriff	19.3	Will Clark	125
12	Will Clark	17.2	Tino Martinez	17.8	Andres Galarraga	122
13	Fred McGriff	16.2	Andres Galarraga	17.3	Fred McGriff	122
14	Andres Galarraga	14.5	Will Clark	16.3	Mark Grace	121
15	Jeff Conine	13.2	David Segui	14.7	David Segui	120
16	David Segui	13.1	Jeff Conine	12.2	Richie Sexson	119
17	Eric Karros	12.4	Tony Clark	11.7	Tino Martinez	115
18	Jeff King	11.7	Eric Karros	11.4	Tony Clark	114
19	Wally Joyner	11.3	Richie Sexson	10	Eric Karros	113
20	Tony Clark	11.2	Wally Joyner	9.2	Sean Casey	112

He fell from 1^st, 1^st, and 2^nd from the 1988-1994 time frame to 13^th, 11^th, 13^th in the 1995-2002 time frame. Take a look at his production during these eras.

 

	PA	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
1988-94	4353	644	1062	186	242	667	619	814	.288	.390	.545	.935
1995-2002	5050	607	1267	222	216	793	586	877	.288	.371	.489	.860

He hit for less power as he aged, and what used to be home runs turned into doubles. But his production did not fall off to the point his rankings would drop as much as they did if not for many players altering the proverbial playing field.

Let’s move on the USA Today’s Paul White, discussing “Why he shouldn’t be inducted: Because he was never the best at his position in his era. He never finished higher than fourth in MVP voting, never hit more than 37 homers in a season, never drove in more than 107 runs. At first base, those numbers don’t rise above a usually strong crowd of peers. Even with his longevity, McGriff’s WAR is 48.2, 48^th all-time among first baseman and below others who have been passed over for the Hall, including John Olerud, Will Clark and Keith Hernandez.”[7]

There is a lot to address here. First, with modifications to WAR, McGriff’s WAR is 52.6, which stands at 27^th all-time, and yes, it trails Olerud, Clark, and Hernandez. However, in looking at strictly offensive WAR, McGriff’s 55.6 leads Clark (54.8), Olerud (48.1), and Hernandez (45.6). McGriff’s poor defense cripples his overall WAR. And his great offensive ability was destroyed by the PED-era in which he was subjected, as the above tables illustrate. Over the course of McGriff’s career, his 162-game average consists of a .284 batting average, 32 home runs, 102 RBIs, and a .886 OPS. This from a man who played 140+ games in 14 seasons, compared to McGwire who did it 8 times. How many players can say that?

One final note: Not only did the PED-users overshadow McGriff’s consistently good numbers, they also robbed him of that “Wow” factor. Sometimes, Hall of Fame voters look beyond the statistics. Some voters “award bonus points for cachet, personal magnetism and a certain “wow” factor. It helps explain why Ozzie Smith is in Cooperstown and Alan Trammell will probably never get there.”[8] 30 homer/100 RBI seasons were impressive once upon a time. After the McGwire/Sosa home run race of 1998, anything less than 60 homers was nothing special. Heck, Sosa hit 63 homers or more 3 times, and wasn’t the league leader in any of those years. It was an era which included future 1^st ballot Hall of Famers Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux converting into power hitters for Nike commercials because “Chicks dig the long ball.”

Every year, members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America are sent a Hall of Fame ballot. The instructions state, “Voting shall be based upon the player’s record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contribution to the team(s) on which the player played.” Fred McGriff exemplifies each of these characteristics. He continues to be punished for the PED-users against whom he competed. Sabermetricians need to learn their statistical methodologies do not accurately measure a clean player’s performance during the Steroid-era. McGriff continues to be robbed. It is time for the voters to correct it.

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[1] This is a reference to a famous 80’s commercial. IBM is not affiliated with this website in any way. The views and opinions are those of the Highway to Hall only.

[2] 17 men now belong in the club.

[3] This club now has 28 members.

[4] Jaffe, Jay. JAWS and the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot: Fred McGriff. Jay Jaffe. Available at mlb.si.com/2013/12/12/jaws-and-the-2014-hall-of-fame-ballot-fred-mcgriff/ December 12, 2013.

[5] Greenwell makes case for ’88 MVP. Espn.com news services. Available at sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1993112. February 17, 2005.

[6] Schoenfield, David. Fred McGriff on the Hall of Fame border. Available at espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/19729/fred-mcgriff-on-the-hall-of-fame-border. January 7, 2012.

[7] White, Paul. Hall candidate: Fred McGriff deserves better. Paul White. Available at www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2013/01/02/fred-mcgriff-hall-of-fame-candidate/1803471/ January 2, 2013.

[8] Crasnick, Jerry. Debate rages in Rice’s last year on ballot. Available at sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=3787535. December 26, 2008.