Saturday, March 9, 2013

Jorge for the Hall? Just Say No

By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall

It was recently suggested to me that Jorge Posada is Hall of Fame bound. In a year in which no players were elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, this seems like a ludicrous statement. But I was assured if I look at his credentials I would be surprised what I found. Well, I was surprised…surprised how many people believe Posada is a Hall of Famer when he isn’t. To me, Posada’s most startling supporter is ESPN’s Peter Gammons, who makes a less than compelling argument for Posada’s candidacy. Due to name recognition, we’ll use Gammons’ reasoning to assess Posada’s case. 

Gammons contends, “Years from now, depending on the whims of the voters each December, Posada will go into the Hall of Fame in that [Yankees] uniform, like Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. The voters will marvel at those five rings and seven pennants, and think about all the great pitchers he caught.”


                      
Let’s stop here and analyze each of the arguments in this quotation, beginning with that last part, “all the great pitchers he caught.” Gammons elaborates, “In Posada’s career, he caught three certain Hall of Famers in [Mariano] Rivera, [Roger] Clemens, and Randy Johnson. He caught others who will get varying degrees of consideration: Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, [Andy] Pettitte, CC Sabathia, David Cone.”

Let’s look at each pitcher’s statistics while pitching to a catcher who caught him in a minimum of 25 games, to get a better understanding of how valuable Posada was to each of these pitchers. The numbers in bold represent the highest number in that category.

Randy Johnson
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Scott Bradley
44
275
3.60
203
268
.207
.649
Robby Hammock
26
168.2
3.09
131
189
.211
.611
Damian Miller
99
733.1
2.45
550
1020
.208
.602
Chad Moeller
29
204
3.00
171
260
.226
.667
Jorge Posada
43
261.2
4.82
250
210
.252
.732
Kelly Stinnett
28
187.1
3.07
175
241
.250
.688
Dave Valle
99
644
3.68
495
698
.213
.661
Dan Wilson
109
742.2
3.03
565
980
.209
.625

Judging by this list, Posada shouldn’t expect any Christmas cards from Randy Johnson. In 2 years with the Yankees, Johnson’s 4.37 ERA is well above his career mark of 3.29 and his 8.0 strikeouts per 9 innings are far below his Major League record career mark of 10.6.

Roger Clemens
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Brad Ausmus
83
531
2.44
407
495
.211
.590
Rick Cerone
41
270.1
3.26
229
263
.228
.629
Darrin Fletcher
31
217.1
2.69
156
252
.196
.579
Rich Gedman
105
719
2.94
572
695
.217
.596
Bill Haselman
31
220.2
2.90
192
230
.232
.650
John Marzano
26
202.1
2.05
176
202
.234
.604
Tony Pena
115
821.2
2.73
684
716
.226
.600
Jorge Posada
155
971
3.94
931
888
.252
.711

Once again, the winner is Jorge Posada. I guess Clemens won’t be sending him any Christmas cards either.

David Cone
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Gary Carter
52
289.1
3.27
245
237
.230
.646
Joe Girardi
85
561.1
3.09
458
577
.222
.646
Todd Hundley
33
225.1
2.84
174
246
.210
.602
Barry Lyons
26
136.1
2.57
110
119
.219
.612
Mike Macfarlane
37
272.1
3.17
210
192
.214
.625
Jorge Posada
30
169
5.54
178
143
.274
.813
Mackey Sasser
42
238
3.82
226
249
.248
.696

Which one is the outlier? Hey, it’s our old friend Jorge Posada.

                   
Andy Pettitte
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Brad Ausmus
84
518.1
3.39
496
427
.253
.700
Joe Girardi
95
612.2
3.92
639
395
.273
.730
Jim Leyritz
40
261.2
3.61
261
201
.260
.689
Jose Molina
26
164.1
3.94
166
131
.265
.692
Jorge Posada
194
1177.1
4.13
1285
881
.277
.736

Everyone give it up for Jorge Posada! Pettitte might be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he had someone other than Posada catching him his whole career. Pettitte has a career ERA of 3.86, but an ERA of 4.13 with Posada behind the plate.

Kevin Brown
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Carlos Hernandez
35
247
2.40
214
249
.233
.570
Todd Hundley
46
310.2
3.16
273
292
.233
.643
Charles Johnson
49
352.1
2.30
311
266
.238
.596
Chad Kreuter
47
314.1
3.03
259
233
.223
.609
Paul Lo Duca
58
339.2
2.62
293
294
.234
.620
Geno Petralli
49
280.2
3.91
283
137
.262
.690
Jorge Posada
30
172.1
4.91
195
110
.287
.756
Ivan Rodriguez
95
665
3.78
707
428
.273
.716

Brown’s ERA was a full run higher with Posada behind the plate rather than Geno Petralli. Jorge!

Mike Mussina
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Chris Hoiles
175
1209.2
3.54
1123
908
.246
.680
Charles Johnson
47
318.1
3.73
327
264
.268
.729
Jose Molina
35
206.2
3.48
225
158
.283
.724
Jorge Posada
183
1143.1
3.87
1136
954
.258
.702
Jeff Tackett
27
189.1
3.28
185
103
.257
.669

Once again, the highest ERA belongs to Posada. Thank you, Jorge. This time, however, Charles Johnson and Jose Molina provided worse opponent batting averages and OPS percentages.

CC Sabathia
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Josh Bard
29
192.1
3.37
171
136
.241
.708
Francisco Cervelli
39
272
2.98
230
251
.230
.622
Einar Diaz
47
270.2
4.59
248
227
.248
.712
Russell Martin
30
205.2
3.28
192
186
.244
.666
Victor Martinez
128
852.1
3.70
826
700
.255
.696
Jorge Posada
37
228.1
3.55
214
182
.250
.697

Although Posada is not exactly a world beater here (Sabathia’s ERA and opponent’s batting average with Posada are both higher than his career totals (3.50 and .245 respectively)), he is not the poorest performer on this list (Thank you Einar Diaz).

Mariano Rivera
Catcher
G
IP
ERA
H
SO
BA
OPS
Francisco Cervelli
48
47.1
1.71
36
44
.205
.542
John Flaherty
50
54
2.00
48
50
.244
.602
Joe Girardi
137
181
1.94
129
175
.198
.526
Russell Martin
58
55
2.29
42
54
.213
.549
Jose Molina
59
63.1
2.27
43
77
.185
.525
Jorge Posada
598
645.2
1.99
493
561
.209
.539

Good job Jorge! Rivera pitched incredibly well with you behind the plate. And Joe Girardi. And Francisco Cervelli. Frankly, I don’t think it matters who catches Rivera. He is a machine.

                   
What have we learned from this little exercise? Posada had the good fortune of catching many terrific pitchers. And they all seemed to pitch worse with him behind the plate. And I’m not sure how relevant Gammons’ original argument even is. Clemens (PEDs aside) and Johnson were Hall of Famers before they ever met Posada while Rivera would be a Hall of Famer with George Steinbrenner catching.

Let’s now go back to the quotation we are analyzing: “The voters will marvel at those five rings and seven pennants, and think about all the great pitchers he caught.” Let’s talk about that first part: five rings and seven pennants. First, that first World Series title was in 1996, when Posada appeared in 8 games and batted .071 with 1 hit and 1 walk in 15 plate appearances. Needless to say, he did not appear in the postseason that year. Yet we are giving him credit for earning a ring. Okay. Well how rare are the five rings? 55 players appeared on the regular season roster of a World Series winning team 5 or more times. Not surprisingly, 51 of these men appeared in at least one World Series as a New York Yankee. (For the record, the four that didn’t are Dal Maxvill, Stuffy McInnis, Jack Barry, and Eddie Collins). Furthermore, 31 players appeared in the World Series for the winning team 5 or more times, all of whom played for the Yankees. There isn’t a reason to list all of them, as the names Ruth, Mantle, Berra, and DiMaggio are obvious enough. Here is a list of the non-Hall of Famers in the group:

Hank Bauer (7)
Gene Woodling (5)
Frank Crosetti (6)
Paul O’Neill (5)
Johnny Murphy (6)
Red Rolfe (5)
Vic Raschi (6)
George Selkirk (5)
Allie Reynolds (6)
Bill Skowron (5)
Joe Collins (5)
Andy Pettitte (5)
David Cone (5)
Derek Jeter (5)
Eddie Lopat (5)
Mariano Rivera (5)
Gil McDougald (5)


Obviously, Jeter and Rivera are Hall of Fame bound, but what about the rest of this list?  Why are Posada’s rings so much more important than the others? Furthermore, each of these men actually appeared in 5 or more World Series on the winning side, whereas Posada only appeared in 4. If we include those players who actually appeared in the World Series for 4 championship teams, the total number of players increases by 28 players, giving us a grand total of 59 players, of which only 19 are in the Hall of Fame. How significant are these rings?

What else does Mr. Gammons have to say? “One cannot overstate the value of a catcher who produces offensively, and while catching those extraordinary pitchers and winning championships, Posada caught more games than all but 23 others, all the while ranking in the following categories among catchers since 1901:
Stat
No.
Rank
Walks
936
3
Doubles
379
7
OPS
.848
6
OBP
.374
8
HR
275
8
RBI
1,065
11
OPS+
121
8


Well, actually one can overstate the value of a catcher, as Gammons clearly is here. Gammons handpicked a couple of categories to demonstrate Posada’s offensive prowess. But who is ahead of him in these categories? Well, Posada has fewer walks than Mickey Tettleton, fewer doubles than Jason Kendall, fewer home runs and RBIs than Lance Parrish, and a lower on base percentage than Wally Schang. We can’t quibble with his OPS and OPS+ because the names above him in these categories are all terrific, but we will discuss this in a moment. First, since Gammons states “Posada caught more games than all but 23 others,” let’s take a look at the all-time games caught leaderboard:
Rank
Player
Def. Games at Catcher
1
Ivan Rodriguez
2427
2
Carlton Fisk
2226
3
Bob Boone
2225
4
Gary Carter
2056
5
Jason Kendall
2025
6
Tony Pena
1950
7
Brad Ausmus
1938
8
Jim Sundberg
1927
9
Al Lopez
1918
10
Benito Santiago
1917
11
Lance Parrish
1818
12
Rick Ferrell
1806
13
Gabby Hartnett
1793
14
Ted Simmons
1771
15
Johnny Bench
1742
16
Ray Schalk
1727
17
Bill Dickey
1708
18
Yogi Berra
1699
19
Rick Dempsey
1633
20
Mike Piazza
1630
21
Jim Hegan
1629
22
Deacon McGuire
1612
23
Bill Freehan
1581
24
Jorge Posada
1574
25
Sherm Lollar
1571


                   
There is a wide array of players on this list. Let’s place them in order of All-Star Game selections.
Catcher
All-Star Selections
Yogi Berra
18 (15 seasons)
Johnny Bench
14
Ivan Rodriguez
14
Mike Piazza
12
Bill Freehan
11
Bill Dickey
11
Gary Carter
11
Carlton Fisk
11
Lance Parrish
8
Rick Ferrell
8
Ted Simmons
8
Sherm Lollar
7
Gabby Hartnett
6 (All-Star Game began in his 12th season)
Benito Santiago
5
Jim Hegan
5
Tony Pena
5
Jorge Posada
5
Bob Boone
4
Jason Kendall
3
Jim Sundberg
3
Al Lopez
2 (All-Star Game began in his 5th season)
Brad Ausmus
1
Rick Dempsey
0
Ray Schalk
No All-Star Game available
Deacon McGuire
No All-Star Game available

All-Star Games are less meaningful today than they used to be. It seems everyone gets selected due to injury replacements and expanded rosters. This makes it all the more surprising that Posada ranks so low on this list. 5 All-Star selections in 17 seasons are staggeringly low. Most of the men on the list above are not in the Hall of Fame. What makes Posada so special to deserve election over Simmons or Freehan?

Let’s take a closer look at the catchers on this list with fewer All-Star appearances than Posada: Boone, Kendall, Sundberg, Ausmus, and Dempsey.
           
Boone won 7 Gold Glove Awards. Sundberg won 6. Ausmus won 3. Neither Kendall nor Dempsey won any. Posada didn’t win any either. As demonstrated earlier, Posada was not great behind the plate, which is why Joe Girardi continued to see significant playing time despite providing little offensive value. Posada’s value stemmed from his skill wielding the bat. But how special was it?

According to Peter Gammons, “The only catchers who had a higher OPS+ were Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, [Bill] Dickey, Johnny Bench, Ernie Lombardi, Gabby Hartnett and [Yogi] Berra. Think about that.” First, a look at the retired players who have a 121 OPS+:
Harold Baines
Heinie Manush*
John Briggs
Dale Murphy
Jeff Burroughs
Al Oliver
Ron Cey
Dave Parker
Cecil Cooper
Jorge Posada
Chili Davis
Kip Selbach
George Davis*
Orator Shafer
Mike Greenwell
Jimmy Sheckard
Johnny Grubb
Joe Start
Mike Hargrove
Dixie Walker
Tony Lazzeri*
Roy White
Chet Lemon
Heinie Zimmerman
Shane Mack

* Denotes a Hall of Famer

I don’t know what to make of this list. There are 3 Hall of Famers, a handful of players (Baines, Cey, Murphy, Oliver, and Parker) who have garnered Hall of Fame support, and some other guys. But this wasn’t Gammons’ point. He was impressed by the list of catchers ranked ahead of Posada. Fair enough. Those are certainly some strong names. Let’s look at some other positions to try and put this in a better perspective.

Among third basemen with a minimum of 6,108 plate appearances (the number of plate appearances by Hall of Famer Fred Lindstrom), here are the leaders in OPS+:
Mike Schmidt
147
Eddie Mathews
143
Chipper Jones
141
Home Run Baker
135
George Brett
135
Wade Boggs
131
Ron Santo
125
Bob Elliott
124
Bill Madlock
123
Scott Rolen
122

So the only third basemen with an OPS+ higher than Bob Elliott are 6 Hall of Famers and soon-to-be-Hall-of-Famer Chipper Jones. Think about that.

Obviously, this argument would go on forever. At every position, someone has the highest OPS+ of all players not in the Hall of Fame. So where do we draw the line? Above that player? Below that player? In this case, there is a pretty big dropoff in OPS+ from Boggs to Santo. And since Santo waited thirty-three years to gain induction, one can argue the line is between Santo and Elliott. This is supported by the next names on the list:


Bob Elliott
124
Bill Madlock
123
Scott Rolen
122
Ron Cey
121
Troy Glaus
119
Darrell Evans
119
Richie Hebner
119
Sal Bando
119
Stan Hack
119
Heinie Groh
118
Aramis Ramirez
116
Ken Caminiti
116
Ken Boyer
116
Harlond Clift
116
Doug DeCinces
115
Robin Ventura
114
Toby Harrah
114





There are no Hall of Famers on this list. Astute readers will realize, however, there are more than 6 third basemen in the Hall of Fame. So where are the others? Jimmy Collins (113), George Kell (112), Fred Lindstrom (110), Pie Traynor (107), and Brooks Robinson (104) rank further down the list. Collins, Kell, and Lindstrom (along with Baker and Santo) were elected by the various incarnations of the Veterans Committees. Traynor and Robinson are proof that OPS+ is not the best indicator of value.

Now, let’s take a look at another position. There are 15 second basemen in history with 9000 or more plate appearances. 11 of these men are in the Hall of Fame. A look at the complete list, ranked in order of OPS+:

Rogers Hornsby
175
Nap Lajoie
150
Eddie Collins
142
Joe Morgan
132
Charlie Gehringer
124
Jeff Kent
123
Lou Whitaker
117
Roberto Alomar
116
Ryne Sandberg
114
Craig Biggio
112
Frankie Frisch
110
Bid McPhee
107
Willie Randolph
104
Red Schoendienst
94
Nellie Fox
93

The only 4 players on this list not in the Hall are Jeff Kent (not yet eligible), Craig Biggio (who will be in some time during the next two years), Lou Whitaker, and Willie Randolph. At the time of Whitaker’s retirement, the only second basemen with a higher OPS+ were Hornsby, Lajoie, Collins, Morgan, and Gehringer. Think about that. Actually, don’t think about that. Think about the fact that Whitaker received 15 votes (2.9%) in his only year on the ballot. Now explain to me why I should be excited that Posada ranks 8th among catchers in OPS+ and trails only Hall of Famers and a soon-to-be Hall of Famer.
                   
Earlier we mentioned some of the catchers ahead of Posada in the categories selected by Gammons. Let’s discuss one of those names in more detail: Wally Schang. Schang’s career lasted 19 seasons from 1913 to 1931.

First, a comparison of their statistics:

PA
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
SB
BB
BA
OBP
SLG
SH
OPS+
Posada
7150
900
1664
379
10
275
1065
20
936
.273
.374
.474
1
121
Schang
6431
769
1506
264
90
59
710
121
849
.274
.393
.401
160
117

Schang obviously played in a different era. “Small ball” was the style, as evidenced by Schang’s stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. Schang played before Gold Glove Awards and All-Star Games, but he did receive MVP votes 5 times (Posada received MVP votes 3 times). Schang also played on seven pennant winning teams, winning 4 World Series (numbers eerily similar to Posada). In fact, teams won championships the moment he walked through the door. The A’s finished third in 1912, but won the pennant during Schang’s rookie season. Boston finished second in 1917 but won the pennant after acquiring Schang in 1918. And the Yankees won their first pennant in Schang’s first season with the club in 1921. Furthermore, Schang caught Hall of Famers Chief Bender, Eddie Plank, Herb Pennock, Waite Hoyt, Lefty Grove, and Babe Ruth. And unlike Posada, Schang actually provided value to the pitchers he caught. According to the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract, the 1918 Reach Guide said that Schang “gave the [Boston] pitchers excellent support throughout the season,” and the 1922 Reach Guide stated Schang “yielded the Yankee pitchers valuable support.”[1]

As for the 121 OPS+ by Posada that Gammons puts so much emphasis on…well, Schang’s 117 OPS+ ties Carlton Fisk and trails only Ted Simmons, Posada, and the aforementioned seven catchers on the all-time list.

Gammons admits, “[Posada] may have trouble passing the Cooperstown eye test, but unlike Ted Simmons, Posada will go onto the ballot at a time when most votes are more scrutinized than they were 20 years ago.” That is very true on both counts. Posada doesn’t pass the eye test. Heck, if Gary Carter, the dominant catcher in baseball throughout the 1980s, waited 6 years for induction, how can Posada make it?
As for the extra scrutiny nowadays, the sabermetric crowd always throws in their two cents. What will they say about Posada’s chances? Well, their favorite categories are WAR and JAWS. Let’s see how Posada and a couple of other catchers stack up:

Catcher
WAR
WAR rank among catchers
WAR7
WAR7 rank among catchers
JAWS
Jaws rank among catchers
Ted Simmons
46.7
12
33.2
11
40.0
11
Thurman Munson
43.3
17
35.1
8
39.2
13
Wally Schang
41.4
18
23.5
30
32.4
25
Bill Freehan
41.3
19
31.8
15
36.5
16
Jorge Posada
39.0
21
30.6
17
34.8
20
All values provided by baseball-reference.com

It is tough to see how the sabermetricians would rally around Posada. They jumped all over Bert Blyleven’s candidacy because Blyleven’s WAR ranks 13th all-time among starting pitchers, trailing Hall of Famers and soon-to-be Hall of Famers. As shown above, Posada’s WAR ranks 21st among catchers, trailing the aforementioned Simmons, Munson, Schang, and Freehan, not to mention Joe Torre and Gene Tenace. He’s not much better in the other categories.

There is just not a lot to get excited about. Interestingly, in discussing Wally Schang and the number of great pitchers he caught, the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract states, “Sometimes a player who has hobnobbed with such celebrity will acquire the status himself, but it didn’t happen for Wally.”[2] Evidently, in the eyes of Peter Gammons, it did happen for Jorge. But that is not enough to make him a Hall of Famer.


[1] Bill James, The Bill James Baseball Historical Abstract (New York: Villard Books, 1988), 330.
[2] Id. at 332.


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