By Dan Trammel
@HighwaytoHall
It was recently suggested to me that Jorge Posada is Hall of Fame bound. In a year in which no players were elected to the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame, this seems like a ludicrous statement. But I was assured if I look at his credentials I would be surprised what I found. Well, I was surprised…surprised how many people believe Posada is a Hall of Famer when he isn’t. To me, Posada’s most startling supporter is ESPN’s Peter Gammons, who makes a less than compelling argument for Posada’s candidacy. Due to name recognition, we’ll use Gammons’ reasoning to assess Posada’s case.
Gammons contends, “Years from now, depending on the whims of the voters each December, Posada will go into the Hall of Fame in that [Yankees] uniform, like Yogi Berra and Bill Dickey. The voters will marvel at those five rings and seven pennants, and think about all the great pitchers he caught.”
Let’s stop here and analyze each of the arguments in this quotation, beginning with that last part, “all the great pitchers he caught.” Gammons elaborates, “In Posada’s career, he caught three certain Hall of Famers in [Mariano] Rivera, [Roger] Clemens, and Randy Johnson. He caught others who will get varying degrees of consideration: Mike Mussina, Kevin Brown, [Andy] Pettitte, CC Sabathia, David Cone.”
Let’s look at each pitcher’s statistics while pitching to a catcher who caught him in a minimum of 25 games, to get a better understanding of how valuable Posada was to each of these pitchers. The numbers in bold represent the highest number in that category.
Randy Johnson
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Scott Bradley
|
44
|
275
|
3.60
|
203
|
268
|
.207
|
.649
|
Robby Hammock
|
26
|
168.2
|
3.09
|
131
|
189
|
.211
|
.611
|
Damian Miller
|
99
|
733.1
|
2.45
|
550
|
1020
|
.208
|
.602
|
29
|
204
|
3.00
|
171
|
260
|
.226
|
.667
| |
Jorge Posada
|
43
|
261.2
|
4.82
|
250
|
210
|
.252
|
.732
|
Kelly Stinnett
|
28
|
187.1
|
3.07
|
175
|
241
|
.250
|
.688
|
Dave Valle
|
99
|
644
|
3.68
|
495
|
698
|
.213
|
.661
|
Dan Wilson
|
109
|
742.2
|
3.03
|
565
|
980
|
.209
|
.625
|
Judging by this list, Posada shouldn’t expect any Christmas cards from Randy Johnson. In 2 years with the Yankees, Johnson’s 4.37 ERA is well above his career mark of 3.29 and his 8.0 strikeouts per 9 innings are far below his Major League record career mark of 10.6.
Roger Clemens
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Brad Ausmus
|
83
|
531
|
2.44
|
407
|
495
|
.211
|
.590
|
Rick Cerone
|
41
|
270.1
|
3.26
|
229
|
263
|
.228
|
.629
|
Darrin Fletcher
|
31
|
217.1
|
2.69
|
156
|
252
|
.196
|
.579
|
Rich Gedman
|
105
|
719
|
2.94
|
572
|
695
|
.217
|
.596
|
Bill Haselman
|
31
|
220.2
|
2.90
|
192
|
230
|
.232
|
.650
|
John Marzano
|
26
|
202.1
|
2.05
|
176
|
202
|
.234
|
.604
|
Tony Pena
|
115
|
821.2
|
2.73
|
684
|
716
|
.226
|
.600
|
Jorge Posada
|
155
|
971
|
3.94
|
931
|
888
|
.252
|
.711
|
Once again, the winner is Jorge Posada. I guess Clemens won’t be sending him any Christmas cards either.
David Cone
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Gary Carter
|
52
|
289.1
|
3.27
|
245
|
237
|
.230
|
.646
|
Joe Girardi
|
85
|
561.1
|
3.09
|
458
|
577
|
.222
|
.646
|
Todd Hundley
|
33
|
225.1
|
2.84
|
174
|
246
|
.210
|
.602
|
Barry Lyons
|
26
|
136.1
|
2.57
|
110
|
119
|
.219
|
.612
|
Mike Macfarlane
|
37
|
272.1
|
3.17
|
210
|
192
|
.214
|
.625
|
Jorge Posada
|
30
|
169
|
5.54
|
178
|
143
|
.274
|
.813
|
Mackey Sasser
|
42
|
238
|
3.82
|
226
|
249
|
.248
|
.696
|
Which one is the outlier? Hey, it’s our old friend Jorge Posada.
Andy Pettitte
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Brad Ausmus
|
84
|
518.1
|
3.39
|
496
|
427
|
.253
|
.700
|
Joe Girardi
|
95
|
612.2
|
3.92
|
639
|
395
|
.273
|
.730
|
Jim Leyritz
|
40
|
261.2
|
3.61
|
261
|
201
|
.260
|
.689
|
Jose Molina
|
26
|
164.1
|
3.94
|
166
|
131
|
.265
|
.692
|
Jorge Posada
|
194
|
1177.1
|
4.13
|
1285
|
881
|
.277
|
.736
|
Everyone give it up for Jorge Posada! Pettitte might be a first-ballot Hall of Famer if he had someone other than Posada catching him his whole career. Pettitte has a career ERA of 3.86, but an ERA of 4.13 with Posada behind the plate.
Kevin Brown
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Carlos Hernandez
|
35
|
247
|
2.40
|
214
|
249
|
.233
|
.570
|
Todd Hundley
|
46
|
310.2
|
3.16
|
273
|
292
|
.233
|
.643
|
Charles Johnson
|
49
|
352.1
|
2.30
|
311
|
266
|
.238
|
.596
|
47
|
314.1
|
3.03
|
259
|
233
|
.223
|
.609
| |
Paul Lo Duca
|
58
|
339.2
|
2.62
|
293
|
294
|
.234
|
.620
|
Geno Petralli
|
49
|
280.2
|
3.91
|
283
|
137
|
.262
|
.690
|
Jorge Posada
|
30
|
172.1
|
4.91
|
195
|
110
|
.287
|
.756
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
95
|
665
|
3.78
|
707
|
428
|
.273
|
.716
|
Brown’s ERA was a full run higher with Posada behind the plate rather than Geno Petralli. Jorge!
Mike Mussina
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Chris Hoiles
|
175
|
1209.2
|
3.54
|
1123
|
908
|
.246
|
.680
|
Charles Johnson
|
47
|
318.1
|
3.73
|
327
|
264
|
.268
|
.729
|
Jose Molina
|
35
|
206.2
|
3.48
|
225
|
158
|
.283
|
.724
|
Jorge Posada
|
183
|
1143.1
|
3.87
|
1136
|
954
|
.258
|
.702
|
Jeff Tackett
|
27
|
189.1
|
3.28
|
185
|
103
|
.257
|
.669
|
Once again, the highest ERA belongs to Posada. Thank you, Jorge. This time, however, Charles Johnson and Jose Molina provided worse opponent batting averages and OPS percentages.
CC Sabathia
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Josh Bard
|
29
|
192.1
|
3.37
|
171
|
136
|
.241
|
.708
|
Francisco Cervelli
|
39
|
272
|
2.98
|
230
|
251
|
.230
|
.622
|
Einar Diaz
|
47
|
270.2
|
4.59
|
248
|
227
|
.248
|
.712
|
Russell Martin
|
30
|
205.2
|
3.28
|
192
|
186
|
.244
|
.666
|
Victor Martinez
|
128
|
852.1
|
3.70
|
826
|
700
|
.255
|
.696
|
Jorge Posada
|
37
|
228.1
|
3.55
|
214
|
182
|
.250
|
.697
|
Although Posada is not exactly a world beater here (Sabathia’s ERA and opponent’s batting average with Posada are both higher than his career totals (3.50 and .245 respectively)), he is not the poorest performer on this list (Thank you Einar Diaz).
Mariano Rivera
Catcher
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
H
|
SO
|
BA
|
OPS
|
Francisco Cervelli
|
48
|
47.1
|
1.71
|
36
|
44
|
.205
|
.542
|
John Flaherty
|
50
|
54
|
2.00
|
48
|
50
|
.244
|
.602
|
Joe Girardi
|
137
|
181
|
1.94
|
129
|
175
|
.198
|
.526
|
Russell Martin
|
58
|
55
|
2.29
|
42
|
54
|
.213
|
.549
|
Jose Molina
|
59
|
63.1
|
2.27
|
43
|
77
|
.185
|
.525
|
Jorge Posada
|
598
|
645.2
|
1.99
|
493
|
561
|
.209
|
.539
|
Good job Jorge! Rivera pitched incredibly well with you behind the plate. And Joe Girardi. And Francisco Cervelli. Frankly, I don’t think it matters who catches Rivera. He is a machine.
What have we learned from this little exercise? Posada had the good fortune of catching many terrific pitchers. And they all seemed to pitch worse with him behind the plate. And I’m not sure how relevant Gammons’ original argument even is. Clemens (PEDs aside) and Johnson were Hall of Famers before they ever met Posada while Rivera would be a Hall of Famer with George Steinbrenner catching.
Let’s now go back to the quotation we are analyzing: “The voters will marvel at those five rings and seven pennants, and think about all the great pitchers he caught.” Let’s talk about that first part: five rings and seven pennants. First, that first World Series title was in 1996, when Posada appeared in 8 games and batted .071 with 1 hit and 1 walk in 15 plate appearances. Needless to say, he did not appear in the postseason that year. Yet we are giving him credit for earning a ring. Okay. Well how rare are the five rings? 55 players appeared on the regular season roster of a World Series winning team 5 or more times. Not surprisingly, 51 of these men appeared in at least one World Series as a New York Yankee. (For the record, the four that didn’t are Dal Maxvill, Stuffy McInnis, Jack Barry, and Eddie Collins). Furthermore, 31 players appeared in the World Series for the winning team 5 or more times, all of whom played for the Yankees. There isn’t a reason to list all of them, as the names Ruth, Mantle, Berra, and DiMaggio are obvious enough. Here is a list of the non-Hall of Famers
Hank Bauer (7)
|
Gene Woodling (5)
|
Frank Crosetti (6)
|
Paul O’Neill (5)
|
Johnny Murphy (6)
|
Red Rolfe (5)
|
Vic Raschi (6)
|
George Selkirk (5)
|
Allie Reynolds (6)
|
Bill Skowron (5)
|
Joe Collins (5)
|
Andy Pettitte (5)
|
David Cone (5)
|
Derek Jeter (5)
|
Eddie Lopat (5)
|
Mariano Rivera (5)
|
Gil McDougald (5)
|
Obviously, Jeter and Rivera are Hall of Fame bound, but what about the rest of this list? Why are Posada’s rings so much more important than the others? Furthermore, each of these men actually appeared in 5 or more World Series on the winning side, whereas Posada only appeared in 4. If we include those players who actually appeared in the World Series for 4 championship teams, the total number of players increases by 28 players, giving us a grand total of 59 players, of which only 19 are in the Hall of Fame. How significant are these rings?
What else does Mr. Gammons have to say? “One cannot overstate the value of a catcher who produces offensively, and while catching those extraordinary pitchers and winning championships, Posada caught more games than all but 23 others, all the while ranking in the following categories among catchers since 1901:
Stat
|
No.
|
Rank
|
Walks
|
936
|
3
|
Doubles
|
379
|
7
|
OPS
|
.848
|
6
|
OBP
|
.374
|
8
|
HR
|
275
|
8
|
RBI
|
1,065
|
11
|
OPS+
|
121
|
8
|
Well, actually one can overstate the value of a catcher, as Gammons clearly is here. Gammons handpicked a couple of categories to demonstrate Posada’s offensive prowess. But who is ahead of him in these categories? Well, Posada has fewer walks than Mickey Tettleton, fewer doubles than Jason Kendall, fewer home runs and RBIs than Lance Parrish, and a lower on base percentage than Wally Schang. We can’t quibble with his OPS and OPS+ because the names above him in these categories are all terrific, but we will discuss this in a moment. First, since Gammons states “Posada caught more games than all but 23 others,” let’s take a look at the all-time games caught leaderboard:
Rank
|
Player
|
Def. Games at Catcher
|
1
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
2427
|
2
|
2226
| |
3
|
Bob Boone
|
2225
|
4
|
Gary Carter
|
2056
|
5
|
Jason Kendall
|
2025
|
6
|
Tony Pena
|
1950
|
7
|
Brad Ausmus
|
1938
|
8
|
Jim Sundberg
|
1927
|
9
|
Al Lopez
|
1918
|
10
|
Benito Santiago
|
1917
|
11
|
Lance Parrish
|
1818
|
12
|
Rick Ferrell
|
1806
|
13
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
1793
|
14
|
Ted Simmons
|
1771
|
15
|
Johnny Bench
|
1742
|
16
|
Ray Schalk
|
1727
|
17
|
Bill Dickey
|
1708
|
18
|
Yogi Berra
|
1699
|
19
|
Rick Dempsey
|
1633
|
20
|
Mike Piazza
|
1630
|
21
|
Jim Hegan
|
1629
|
22
|
Deacon McGuire
|
1612
|
23
|
Bill Freehan
|
1581
|
24
|
Jorge Posada
|
1574
|
25
|
Sherm Lollar
|
1571
|
There is a wide array of players on this list. Let’s place them in order of All-Star Game selections.
Catcher
|
All-Star Selections
|
Yogi Berra
|
18 (15 seasons)
|
Johnny Bench
|
14
|
Ivan Rodriguez
|
14
|
Mike Piazza
|
12
|
Bill Freehan
|
11
|
Bill Dickey
|
11
|
Gary Carter
|
11
|
11
| |
Lance Parrish
|
8
|
Rick Ferrell
|
8
|
Ted Simmons
|
8
|
Sherm Lollar
|
7
|
Gabby Hartnett
|
6 (All-Star Game began in his 12th season)
|
Benito Santiago
|
5
|
Jim Hegan
|
5
|
Tony Pena
|
5
|
Jorge Posada
|
5
|
Bob Boone
|
4
|
Jason Kendall
|
3
|
Jim Sundberg
|
3
|
Al Lopez
|
2 (All-Star Game began in his 5th season)
|
Brad Ausmus
|
1
|
Rick Dempsey
|
0
|
Ray Schalk
|
No All-Star Game available
|
Deacon McGuire
|
No All-Star Game available
|
All-Star Games are less meaningful today than they used to be. It seems everyone gets selected due to injury replacements and expanded rosters. This makes it all the more surprising that Posada ranks so low on this list. 5 All-Star selections in 17 seasons are staggeringly low. Most of the men on the list above are not in the Hall of Fame. What makes Posada so special to deserve election over Simmons or Freehan?
Let’s take a closer look at the catchers on this list with fewer All-Star appearances than Posada: Boone, Kendall, Sundberg, Ausmus, and Dempsey.
According to Peter Gammons, “The only catchers who had a higher OPS+ were Mike Piazza, Mickey Cochrane, [Bill] Dickey, Johnny Bench, Ernie Lombardi, Gabby Hartnett and [Yogi] Berra. Think about that.” First, a look at the retired players who have a 121 OPS+:
Harold Baines
|
Heinie Manush*
|
John Briggs
|
Dale Murphy
|
Jeff Burroughs
|
Al Oliver
|
Ron Cey
|
Dave Parker
|
Cecil Cooper
|
Jorge Posada
|
Chili
|
Kip Selbach
|
George Davis*
|
Orator Shafer
|
Mike Greenwell
|
Jimmy Sheckard
|
Johnny Grubb
|
Joe Start
|
Mike Hargrove
| |
Tony Lazzeri*
|
Roy White
|
Chet Lemon
|
Heinie Zimmerman
|
Shane Mack
|
I don’t know what to make of this list. There are 3 Hall of Famers, a handful of players (Baines, Cey, Murphy, Oliver, and Parker) who have garnered Hall of Fame support, and some other guys. But this wasn’t Gammons’ point. He was impressed by the list of catchers ranked ahead of Posada. Fair enough. Those are certainly some strong names. Let’s look at some other positions to try and put this in a better perspective.
Among third basemen with a minimum of 6,108 plate appearances (the number of plate appearances by Hall of Famer Fred Lindstrom), here are the leaders in OPS+:
Mike Schmidt
|
147
|
Eddie Mathews
|
143
|
Chipper Jones
|
141
|
Home Run Baker
|
135
|
George Brett
|
135
|
Wade Boggs
|
131
|
Ron Santo
|
125
|
Bob Elliott
|
124
|
Bill Madlock
|
123
|
Scott Rolen
|
122
|
So the only third basemen with an OPS+ higher than Bob Elliott are 6 Hall of Famers and soon-to-be-Hall-of-Famer Chipper Jones. Think about that.
Obviously, this argument would go on forever. At every position, someone has the highest OPS+ of all players not in the Hall of Fame. So where do we draw the line? Above that player? Below that player? In this case, there is a pretty big dropoff in OPS+ from Boggs to Santo. And since Santo waited thirty-three years to gain induction, one can argue the line is between Santo and Elliott. This is supported by the next names on the list:
Bob Elliott
|
124
|
Bill Madlock
|
123
|
Scott Rolen
|
122
|
Ron Cey
|
121
|
Troy Glaus
|
119
|
Darrell Evans
|
119
|
Richie Hebner
|
119
|
Sal Bando
|
119
|
Stan Hack
|
119
|
Heinie Groh
|
118
|
Aramis Ramirez
|
116
|
Ken Caminiti
|
116
|
Ken Boyer
|
116
|
Harlond Clift
|
116
|
Doug DeCinces
|
115
|
Robin Ventura
|
114
|
Toby Harrah
|
114
|
There are no Hall of Famers on this list. Astute readers will realize, however, there are more than 6 third basemen in the Hall of Fame. So where are the others? Jimmy Collins (113), George Kell (112), Fred Lindstrom (110), Pie Traynor (107), and Brooks Robinson (104) rank further down the list. Collins, Kell, and Lindstrom (along with Baker and Santo) were elected by the various incarnations of the Veterans Committees. Traynor and Robinson are proof that OPS+ is not the best indicator of value.
Now, let’s take a look at another position. There are 15 second basemen in history with 9000 or more plate appearances. 11 of these men are in the Hall of Fame. A look at the complete list, ranked in order of OPS+:
175
| |
Nap Lajoie
|
150
|
Eddie Collins
|
142
|
Joe Morgan
|
132
|
Charlie Gehringer
|
124
|
Jeff Kent
|
123
|
Lou Whitaker
|
117
|
Roberto Alomar
|
116
|
Ryne Sandberg
|
114
|
Craig Biggio
|
112
|
Frankie Frisch
|
110
|
Bid McPhee
|
107
|
Willie Randolph
|
104
|
Red Schoendienst
|
94
|
Nellie Fox
|
93
|
The only 4 players on this list not in the Hall are Jeff Kent (not yet eligible), Craig Biggio (who will be in some time during the next two years), Lou Whitaker, and Willie Randolph. At the time of Whitaker’s retirement, the only second basemen with a higher OPS+ were Hornsby, Lajoie, Collins, Morgan, and Gehringer. Think about that. Actually, don’t think about that. Think about the fact that Whitaker received 15 votes (2.9%) in his only year on the ballot. Now explain to me why I should be excited that Posada ranks 8th among catchers in OPS+ and trails only Hall of Famers and a soon-to-be Hall of Famer.
Earlier we mentioned some of the catchers ahead of Posada in the categories selected by Gammons. Let’s discuss one of those names in more detail: Wally Schang. Schang’s career lasted 19 seasons from 1913 to 1931.
First, a comparison of their statistics:
PA
|
R
|
H
|
2B
|
3B
|
HR
|
RBI
|
SB
|
BB
|
BA
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
SH
|
OPS+
| |
Posada
|
7150
|
900
|
1664
|
379
|
10
|
275
|
1065
|
20
|
936
|
.273
|
.374
|
.474
|
1
|
121
|
Schang
|
6431
|
769
|
1506
|
264
|
90
|
59
|
710
|
121
|
849
|
.274
|
.393
|
.401
|
160
|
117
|
Schang obviously played in a different era. “Small ball” was the style, as evidenced by Schang’s stolen bases and sacrifice bunts. Schang played before Gold Glove Awards and All-Star Games, but he did receive MVP votes 5 times (Posada received MVP votes 3 times). Schang also played on seven pennant winning teams, winning 4 World Series (numbers eerily similar to Posada). In fact, teams won championships the moment he walked through the door. The A’s finished third in 1912, but won the pennant during Schang’s rookie season. Boston Boston
As for the 121 OPS+ by Posada that Gammons puts so much emphasis on…well, Schang’s 117 OPS+ ties Carlton Fisk and trails only Ted Simmons, Posada, and the aforementioned seven catchers on the all-time list.
Gammons admits, “[Posada] may have trouble passing the Cooperstown eye test, but unlike Ted Simmons, Posada will go onto the ballot at a time when most votes are more scrutinized than they were 20 years ago.” That is very true on both counts. Posada doesn’t pass the eye test. Heck, if Gary Carter, the dominant catcher in baseball throughout the 1980s, waited 6 years for induction, how can Posada make it?
As for the extra scrutiny nowadays, the sabermetric crowd always throws in their two cents. What will they say about Posada’s chances? Well, their favorite categories are WAR and JAWS. Let’s see how Posada and a couple of other catchers stack up:
Catcher
|
WAR
|
WAR rank among catchers
|
WAR7
|
WAR7 rank among catchers
|
JAWS
|
Jaws rank among catchers
|
Ted Simmons
|
46.7
|
12
|
33.2
|
11
|
40.0
|
11
|
Thurman Munson
|
43.3
|
17
|
35.1
|
8
|
39.2
|
13
|
Wally Schang
|
41.4
|
18
|
23.5
|
30
|
32.4
|
25
|
Bill Freehan
|
41.3
|
19
|
31.8
|
15
|
36.5
|
16
|
Jorge Posada
|
39.0
|
21
|
30.6
|
17
|
34.8
|
20
|
It is tough to see how the sabermetricians would rally around Posada. They jumped all over Bert Blyleven’s candidacy because Blyleven’s WAR ranks 13th all-time among starting pitchers, trailing Hall of Famers and soon-to-be Hall of Famers. As shown above, Posada’s WAR ranks 21st among catchers, trailing the aforementioned Simmons, Munson, Schang, and Freehan, not to mention Joe Torre and Gene Tenace. He’s not much better in the other categories.
There is just not a lot to get excited about. Interestingly, in discussing Wally Schang and the number of great pitchers he caught, the Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract states, “Sometimes a player who has hobnobbed with such celebrity will acquire the status himself, but it didn’t happen for Wally.”[2] Evidently, in the eyes of Peter Gammons, it did happen for Jorge. But that is not enough to make him a Hall of Famer.
[1] Bill James, The Bill James Baseball Historical Abstract (New York: Villard Books, 1988), 330.
[2] Id.
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