Paul Konerko is far from being a Hall of Famer

By DAN TRAMMEL
@HighwaytoHall

After belting his 400^th career home run, Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko has been described by some as a future Hall of Famer.

With Konerko at the age of 36, and the availability of the designated hitter, the notion of reaching 500 home runs is not out of the question. Unless the members of the Baseball Writers Association deviate from their past voting patterns and decide that reaching a “magic number” does not justify automatic enshrinement in the Hall, Konerko will be inducted on the first ballot.

This would make him the worst player ever selected by the Baseball Writers.

Paul Konerko is a five-time All-Star with zero Silver Slugger or Gold Glove Awards, finished 5^th in the MVP voting once, has a career OPS+ of 121, and a career WAR of 25.9. He finished in the top 5 in the American League in home runs four times, slugging percentage once, OPS once, adjusted OPS+ once, and walks once. He is a below average defensive first baseman with no speed. His entire candidacy hinges on his ability to hit home runs.

If elected, Paul Konerko would not be the worst player in the Hall of Fame. He would not even be the worst first baseman (see George “High Pockets” Kelly) selected. But the large majority of the mistakes made during the Hall of Fame selection process were made by various incarnations of the Veteran’s Committee.

The writers, however, have been much more selective, determining that the likes of Joe DiMaggio and Eddie Mathews were not first ballot Hall of Famers. More recently, the selections of Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven indicate a lowering of the bar. But as of right now, the bar has never been lowered enough for Paul Konerko to step over it.

Compare Konerko to former Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewer first baseman Cecil Cooper, another 5-time All-Star, with 3 Silver Sluggers and 2 Gold Gloves, finished 5^th in the MVP voting 3 times, has a career OPS+ of 121, and a career WAR of 32.6. Cooper finished in the top 5 in the American League in batting average 3 times, slugging percentage twice, OPS once, runs twice, hits 4 times, total bases 4 times, doubles 3 times, home runs once, RBIs 3 times, and adjusted OPS+ twice. Included in these totals are 2 RBI titles, 2 doubles titles, and a total bases title.

This is not to suggest Cecil Cooper is a Hall of Famer, but rather to compare Konerko to a player with a much higher peak who played the same position, and received zero Hall of Fame votes in his only year on the ballot.

Looking at their career numbers, Konerko leads in most categories.

Name	Runs	Hits	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	TB	SB	WAR
Konerko*	1085	2136	381	412	1310	.284	.360	.501	122	3769	9	25.9
Cooper	1012	2192	415	241	1125	.298	.337	.466	121	3424	89	32.6

* Stats through July 25, 2012

Konerko continues to add to his numbers so it is safe to assume he will catch Cooper in each category which he currently trails except for batting average and stolen bases. Although Cooper was equally, if not more highly, regarded than Konerko during his playing career, Konerko will have the more impressive career numbers.

Let’s compare Konerko to several other non-Hall of Fame first baseman, who shall remain anonymous for the moment:

Name	Runs	Hits	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	TB	SB	WAR
A	1124	2182	426	162	1071	.296	.384	.436	128	3214	98	57.1
B	1186	2176	440	284	1205	.303	.384	.497	137	3562	48	53.2
C	1118	1826	332	340	1180	.267	.379	.476	137	3256	77	50.1
D	1349	2490	441	493	1550	.284	.377	.509	134	4458	72	48.2

Those who favor the more traditional statistics will note that Konerko compares favorably to the other players, except perhaps player D, the only 1 of the 4 that can match Konerko’s power numbers. The sabermetricians will note that the four unnamed first basemen all have career WARs that dwarf Konerko. They will also notice that the four unnamed first basemen all have better OPS+, which adjusts a player’s on-base percentage plus slugging percentage to a player’s ballpark. This number helps show how much Konerko has benefited from his home ballpark. A look at his home/road splits:

	Games	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Home	1036	3652	597	1083	190	247	708	.297	.377	.553
Road	1052	4349	488	1053	191	165	602	.272	.345	.452

Konerko has a slugging percentage more than 100 points higher at home, while belting 82 more home runs. The other four did not share the same home field advantage.

Now let’s look at each player’s superlatives:

Name	All-Star Appearances	Gold Gloves	Silver Sluggers	Top 5 MVP Finishes	Years with MVP Votes
Konerko	6	0	0	1	5
A	5	11	2	3	8
B	6	1	2	4	5
C	4	0	2	2	6
D	5	0	3	1	8

Konerko finished in the top 5 of MVP voting once, a 5^th place finish in 2010. Of all of the non-pitchers in the Hall of Fame whose careers started in or after 1931 (the first year the MVP Award was issued annually), three players never finished in the top 4: Pee Wee Reese, Richie Ashburn, and Bill Mazeroski, who were all selected by the Veteran’s Committee. Reese’s highest Hall of Fame voting total was 47.9 percent, Ashburn’s was 41.7, and Mazeroski’s was 42.3. Most people don’t question Reese’s selection because he made 10 All-Star teams and played in 7 World Series. Mazeroski and Ashburn waited many years to get in and one can probably criticize the selection of both, but they each rode their defense into the Hall. Konerko doesn’t have that aspect of his game. He is a high character team player with some power. This qualifies him as a member of the Tommy Henrich All-Stars, named for the former New York Yankees rightfielder known as Mr. Reliable who helped the Yankees to four World Series titles in the 1930s and 1940s. Konerko and Henrich are the types of players who can help a team win a Championship. This, however, does not make them Hall of Fame worthy.

Now, to reveal the identities of the 4 unnamed first basemen above, and their Hall of Fame voting totals:

	Name	Highest Vote %	Years on Ballot	Final Year on Ballot
A	Keith Hernandez	10.8%	9	2004
B	Will Clark	4.4%	1	2006
C	Jack Clark	1.5%	1	1998
D	Fred McGriff	23.9%	3+	On ballot

With or without 500 home runs, Paul Konerko does not have the credentials of Keith Hernandez, Will Clark, or Fred McGriff. If not for the misfortune of having a season interrupted by the 1994 work stoppage, McGriff would have most likely hit the 7 home runs needed to reach 500. Would that have been enough to sway more than 50 percent of the voters to select him?

If so, why do we have voters at all?

Players will simply hang around as long as they can and hope they reach that Magic Number required for enshrinement.

It is too bad Harold Baines’ career spanned two work stoppages. Otherwise, he very likely would have 3,000 hits and a Hall of Fame plaque.