CC Sabathia creeping into Hall consideration

By DAN TRAMMEL
@HighwaytoHall

CC Sabathia celebrated his 32^nd birthday on July 21 of this year. His career record on that date was 186-99, making him the 15^th pitcher since 1901 to win 186 or more games by the age of 32, and the first since 1978 (two years before Sabathia was born).

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Of the previous 14, twelve are enshrined in Cooperstown, including the last eight. The 15 pitchers in the order they each joined the group:

George Mullin 1912

Christy Mathewson 1912
Chief Bender 1915
Grover Cleveland (Pete) Alexander 1918
Walter Johnson 1919
Wes Ferrell 1927
Waite Hoyt 1931
Bob Feller 1950
Hal Newhouser 1952
Robin Roberts 1958
Don Drysdale 1968
Juan Marichal 1969
Jim Palmer 1977
Catfish Hunter 1978
CC Sabathia 2012

Wes Ferrell and George Mullin are the only 2 players listed above, besides Sabathia, who are not currently in the Hall of Fame. Neither player has much of an argument. Oddly, both pitchers rank among the best hitting pitchers of all time.

It is too early to put Sabathia into the Hall of Fame just yet, although this list makes an interesting argument. Let’s look at each player’s record at the age of 32 and the number of strikeouts each recorded:

Name	Wins	Losses	Strikeouts
Johnson	297	191	2614
Mathewson	285*	130	2105
Hunter	210	151	1922
Feller	208	123	2227
Roberts	206	156	1558
Drysdale	202	156	2428
Newhouser	200	147	1769
Bender	197	119	1626
Mullin	196*	156	1202
Palmer	194	104	1722
Alexander	192	89	1418
Marichal	191	88	1840
Ferrell	191	127	971
Hoyt	187	130	845
Sabathia	186	98	2128

*Mathewson and Mullin each turned 32 during the 1912 season. Box scores from this season are incomplete, however, so the statistics shown above for these two pitchers are through the 1911 season. It is possible Mathewson should be credited with 15 more wins and Mullin with 5 more.

 Only Marichal and Alexander suffered fewer losses than Sabathia, who also ranks near the top in strikeouts. Unfortunately, most of these pitchers struggled after reaching this point, particularly Hunter and Drysdale. Here are the pitchers in the order of wins recorded after their 32^nd birthday:

Pete Alexander           181

Walter Johnson           120
Christy Mathewson     88
Robin Roberts             80
Jim Palmer                   74
Bob Feller                   58
Juan Marichal              52
Waite Hoyt                 50
George Mullin             32
Chief Bender              15
Catfish Hunter            14
Hal Newhouser           7
Don Drysdale              7
Wes Ferrell                  2
Sabathia                      N/A

The top 3 pitchers on the list are the only ones to reach 300 wins. Based on past history, I do not believe Sabathia will make it to 300 wins either. He has, however, been one of the dominant pitchers in his era, with a Cy Young Award and 4 other top 5 finishes, giving him a very strong case if he suffers a similar fate to the pitchers listed. One thing missing from his resume, however, is a strong pitching performance in a World Series game. Here are the same pitchers again with their World Series record:

Name	Record	ERA	CG	Championships	WS Apps
Hoyt	6-4	1.83	6	3	7
Bender	6-4	2.44	9	3	5
Hunter	5-3	3.29	1	5	6
Mathewson	5-5	0.97	10	1	4
Palmer	4-2	3.20	1	3	6
Mullin	3-3	1.86	6	0	3
Johnson	3-3	2.52	5	1	2
Drysdale	3-3	2.95	3	3	5
Alexander	3-2	3.56	4	1	3
Newhouser	2-1	6.53	2	1	2
Marichal	0-0	0.00	0	0	1
Roberts	0-1	1.64	1	0	1
Sabathia	0-1	3.29	0	1	1
Feller	0-2	5.02	1	1	1
Ferrell	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

 *WS Apps are the number of series in which a pitcher participated.

Most of these pitchers were frequent visitors to the Fall Classic. And the Hall candidacies of the pitchers at the top of the list were no doubt helped by the number of times they pitched in October. Pitching for the New York Yankees will likely help Sabathia in this regard. If he can add a couple of rings to his resume, he may very well join 12 of the pitchers above in Cooperstown.

One final note, the number 186 was chosen because that is the number of wins recorded by Sabathia. Lowering the number only a little will obviously expand the above list. By my count, the pitcher who came the closest was Greg Maddux, who turned 32 on April 14, 1998. He ended the 1997 season with 184 wins, needing only 2 wins to join the club. He started Opening Day March 31, giving him 3 games to win 2. What happened? In the Opener, he pitched 7 innings, giving up 6 hits and 1 run. He got a no decision because the Braves couldn’t solve Cal Eldred (though the Braves won 2-1). In his next start he was matched up with Curt Schilling. Maddux went 8 innings, giving up 5 hits and 2 runs (1 earned). But Maddux took the loss as Schilling threw a complete game 5 hitter and the Phils won 2-1. Obviously, he missed his chance to join the club regardless of how he did in his last outing before his birthday, but it is worth mentioning anyway. Once again, he is matched up against Schilling. Maddux pitched 8 innings, giving up 5 hits and 0 runs. He got a no decision because Schilling pitched a 2-hit shutout and the Phils scored a run in the 9^th when Mike Cather relieved Maddux and promptly walked Greg Jeffires and Scott Rolen before giving up a single to Mike Lieberthal. So, in 3 starts, Maddux gave up 2 earned runs and was 0-1. Damn close to the club.

Paul Konerko is far from being a Hall of Famer

By DAN TRAMMEL
@HighwaytoHall

After belting his 400^th career home run, Chicago White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko has been described by some as a future Hall of Famer.

With Konerko at the age of 36, and the availability of the designated hitter, the notion of reaching 500 home runs is not out of the question. Unless the members of the Baseball Writers Association deviate from their past voting patterns and decide that reaching a “magic number” does not justify automatic enshrinement in the Hall, Konerko will be inducted on the first ballot.

This would make him the worst player ever selected by the Baseball Writers.

Paul Konerko is a five-time All-Star with zero Silver Slugger or Gold Glove Awards, finished 5^th in the MVP voting once, has a career OPS+ of 121, and a career WAR of 25.9. He finished in the top 5 in the American League in home runs four times, slugging percentage once, OPS once, adjusted OPS+ once, and walks once. He is a below average defensive first baseman with no speed. His entire candidacy hinges on his ability to hit home runs.

If elected, Paul Konerko would not be the worst player in the Hall of Fame. He would not even be the worst first baseman (see George “High Pockets” Kelly) selected. But the large majority of the mistakes made during the Hall of Fame selection process were made by various incarnations of the Veteran’s Committee.

The writers, however, have been much more selective, determining that the likes of Joe DiMaggio and Eddie Mathews were not first ballot Hall of Famers. More recently, the selections of Jim Rice and Bert Blyleven indicate a lowering of the bar. But as of right now, the bar has never been lowered enough for Paul Konerko to step over it.

Compare Konerko to former Boston Red Sox and Milwaukee Brewer first baseman Cecil Cooper, another 5-time All-Star, with 3 Silver Sluggers and 2 Gold Gloves, finished 5^th in the MVP voting 3 times, has a career OPS+ of 121, and a career WAR of 32.6. Cooper finished in the top 5 in the American League in batting average 3 times, slugging percentage twice, OPS once, runs twice, hits 4 times, total bases 4 times, doubles 3 times, home runs once, RBIs 3 times, and adjusted OPS+ twice. Included in these totals are 2 RBI titles, 2 doubles titles, and a total bases title.

This is not to suggest Cecil Cooper is a Hall of Famer, but rather to compare Konerko to a player with a much higher peak who played the same position, and received zero Hall of Fame votes in his only year on the ballot.

Looking at their career numbers, Konerko leads in most categories.

Name	Runs	Hits	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	TB	SB	WAR
Konerko*	1085	2136	381	412	1310	.284	.360	.501	122	3769	9	25.9
Cooper	1012	2192	415	241	1125	.298	.337	.466	121	3424	89	32.6

* Stats through July 25, 2012

Konerko continues to add to his numbers so it is safe to assume he will catch Cooper in each category which he currently trails except for batting average and stolen bases. Although Cooper was equally, if not more highly, regarded than Konerko during his playing career, Konerko will have the more impressive career numbers.

Let’s compare Konerko to several other non-Hall of Fame first baseman, who shall remain anonymous for the moment:

Name	Runs	Hits	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS+	TB	SB	WAR
A	1124	2182	426	162	1071	.296	.384	.436	128	3214	98	57.1
B	1186	2176	440	284	1205	.303	.384	.497	137	3562	48	53.2
C	1118	1826	332	340	1180	.267	.379	.476	137	3256	77	50.1
D	1349	2490	441	493	1550	.284	.377	.509	134	4458	72	48.2

Those who favor the more traditional statistics will note that Konerko compares favorably to the other players, except perhaps player D, the only 1 of the 4 that can match Konerko’s power numbers. The sabermetricians will note that the four unnamed first basemen all have career WARs that dwarf Konerko. They will also notice that the four unnamed first basemen all have better OPS+, which adjusts a player’s on-base percentage plus slugging percentage to a player’s ballpark. This number helps show how much Konerko has benefited from his home ballpark. A look at his home/road splits:

	Games	AB	Runs	Hits	2B	HR	RBI	BA	OBP	SLG
Home	1036	3652	597	1083	190	247	708	.297	.377	.553
Road	1052	4349	488	1053	191	165	602	.272	.345	.452

Konerko has a slugging percentage more than 100 points higher at home, while belting 82 more home runs. The other four did not share the same home field advantage.

Now let’s look at each player’s superlatives:

Name	All-Star Appearances	Gold Gloves	Silver Sluggers	Top 5 MVP Finishes	Years with MVP Votes
Konerko	6	0	0	1	5
A	5	11	2	3	8
B	6	1	2	4	5
C	4	0	2	2	6
D	5	0	3	1	8

Konerko finished in the top 5 of MVP voting once, a 5^th place finish in 2010. Of all of the non-pitchers in the Hall of Fame whose careers started in or after 1931 (the first year the MVP Award was issued annually), three players never finished in the top 4: Pee Wee Reese, Richie Ashburn, and Bill Mazeroski, who were all selected by the Veteran’s Committee. Reese’s highest Hall of Fame voting total was 47.9 percent, Ashburn’s was 41.7, and Mazeroski’s was 42.3. Most people don’t question Reese’s selection because he made 10 All-Star teams and played in 7 World Series. Mazeroski and Ashburn waited many years to get in and one can probably criticize the selection of both, but they each rode their defense into the Hall. Konerko doesn’t have that aspect of his game. He is a high character team player with some power. This qualifies him as a member of the Tommy Henrich All-Stars, named for the former New York Yankees rightfielder known as Mr. Reliable who helped the Yankees to four World Series titles in the 1930s and 1940s. Konerko and Henrich are the types of players who can help a team win a Championship. This, however, does not make them Hall of Fame worthy.

Now, to reveal the identities of the 4 unnamed first basemen above, and their Hall of Fame voting totals:

	Name	Highest Vote %	Years on Ballot	Final Year on Ballot
A	Keith Hernandez	10.8%	9	2004
B	Will Clark	4.4%	1	2006
C	Jack Clark	1.5%	1	1998
D	Fred McGriff	23.9%	3+	On ballot

With or without 500 home runs, Paul Konerko does not have the credentials of Keith Hernandez, Will Clark, or Fred McGriff. If not for the misfortune of having a season interrupted by the 1994 work stoppage, McGriff would have most likely hit the 7 home runs needed to reach 500. Would that have been enough to sway more than 50 percent of the voters to select him?

If so, why do we have voters at all?

Players will simply hang around as long as they can and hope they reach that Magic Number required for enshrinement.

It is too bad Harold Baines’ career spanned two work stoppages. Otherwise, he very likely would have 3,000 hits and a Hall of Fame plaque.