Johnny Damon comes up short of 3,000 Hit Club...and Hall of Fame

By DAN TRAMMEL
@HighwaytoHall

In 2011, Johnny Damon batted .261 and collected 152 hits for the Tampa Bay Rays, leaving him only 277 hits shy of the 3,000 hit plateau.  Turning 38 years old shortly after the season ended, Damon appeared to have a very good chance of collecting his 3,000^th hit before his 40^th birthday. Unfortunately, after being released by the Cleveland Indians last week, not only will he not reach 3,000 hits in the next two seasons, he likely will not reach that milestone at all. With that go his chances for the Hall of Fame.

Other than those players banned from baseball (see Pete Rose) and those players accused of steroid use (see Rafael Palmeiro), every member of the 3,000 Hit Club is in the Hall of Fame.  Until the voters demonstrate a reluctance to elect players who reach certain magic numbers, there is little reason to doubt Damon would join the others in Cooperstown if he could secure the remaining 231 hits.  However, since it is now doubtful Damon will collect those hits, let’s evaluate his chances for election.

A 2-time All-Star with 2 World Series rings, Damon’s statistics and his career ranking on the all-time lists are as follows:

R

H

2B

3B

HR

RBI

SB

BB

BA

OBP

SLG

TB

Total

1668

2769

522

109

235

1139

408

1003

.284

.352

.433

4214

Rank

31st

51st

41st

126th

235th

178th

65th

113th

N/A

N/A

N/A

66th

Of those players eligible (excluding Rose and Palmeiro), only Harold Baines has more hits than Damon and is not in the Hall of Fame. Again excluding Rose and Palmeiro, only Dave Parker and Al Oliver have more doubles than Damon and are not enshrined in Cooperstown.  Despite some surprisingly good numbers, and a career WAR (52.1) that is well above many Hall of Famers, including Lou Brock (42.8), Damon has no chance for induction. He will receive enough votes to stay on the ballot a few years, maybe collecting as many as 15% of the vote. But he will never be considered a candidate with a legitimate chance for induction.

Why is that? First, Damon did not have a period of excellence in which he was one of the best players in the American League. He never finished higher than 13^th in MVP voting and his two best seasons were wasted in Kansas City. Damon was incredibly consistent and remarkably durable, joining Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson, and Pete Rose as the only players to appear in 140+ games in 16 consecutive seasons. His ability to play everyday, combined with being a very good baseball player, allowed him to accumulate impressive career numbers. But the voters like to see a peak which rates among the top players in the era. Damon does not have that.

Second, Damon lacks the impressive secondary numbers which rally support from sabermetricians. His OPS+ (on base percentage plus slugging percentage adjusted to the player’s ballpark) is 104. Among Hall of Fame outfielders, only Lloyd Waner (99) and Tommy McCarthy (102) have lower totals, and they are widely regarded as the two least deserving outfielders in the Hall. Without support from the sabermetric crowd similar to that received by Bert Blyleven, Damon’s name will not generate enough buzz to merit remaining on the ballot for more than a few years.

Nonetheless, Damon was a very good baseball player. His unique blend of speed and power make him an answer to many trivia questions, and place him in a category of underrated players I like to call the Vada Pinson All-Stars, named after the former Cincinnati Reds star who accumulated stunningly similar numbers to Damon.

Name	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	TB
Pinson	1366	2757	485	127	256	1170	305	574	.286	.327	.442	4264
Damon	1668	2769	522	109	235	1139	408	1003	.284	.352	.433	4214

Pinson spent 15 years on the Hall of Fame ballot, peaking at 15.7%. During his prime, he was overshadowed in the National League by Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Roberto Clemente. Although he was one of the youngest players to collect 1,000 hits, he was unable to maintain his pace, and retired at the age of 37, just 243 hits shy of 3,000. However, as stated earlier, Pinson, along with Damon, often appears in trivia questions involving speed/power combination. For example, Damon and Pinson are two of sixteen players in Major League Baseball history to collect 2,350 hits, 235 home runs, and 235 stolen bases. This list consists of Hall of Famers, soon-to-be Hall of Famers (unless voters withhold their votes due to steroid use), and 4 Vada Pinson All-Stars. (The answer is below).

It is difficult to draw a line between Pinson and Damon. It is even more difficult to claim Damon was better. Pinson had a higher peak, finishing 3^rd in the NL MVP voting in 1961. Unfortunately, Pinson was essentially finished as an everyday player by the age of 29. His WAR (50.2) slightly trails that of Damon (52.1). It would be interesting to see how the voters would evaluate their careers if they could have held on to the age of 40. With a few more seasons for each, 3,000 hits becomes a high probability. Then their careers fall in line with that of Lou Brock:

Name	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	OPS+
Brock	1610	3023	488	141	149	900	938	761	.293	.343	.410	4238	109
Damon	1668	2769	522	109	235	1139	408	1003	.284	.352	.433	4214	104
Pinson	1366	2757	485	127	256	1170	305	574	.286	.327	.442	4264	111

In addition to membership in the 3,000 Hit Club, Brock also retired as the all-time stolen base leader. Voters tend to reward players who retire as the “All-Time Leader in…” a non-save category. Simply glancing at their career numbers, though, Brock’s career does not stand out from Pinson and Damon, which begs the question, with 3,000 hits, would the voters have kept out the latter two?

Returning to our previous trivia question, the sixteen players with at least 2,350 hits, 235 home runs, and 235 stolen bases are as follows:

Hank Aaron	Derek Jeter
Bobby Abreu	Willie Mays
Craig Biggio	Joe Morgan
Barry Bonds	Vada Pinson
Johnny Damon	Alex Rodriguez
Andre Dawson	Ryne Sandberg
Steve Finley	Gary Sheffield
Rickey Henderson	Robin Yount

Aaron, Dawson, Henderson, Mays, Morgan, Sandberg, and Yount are all Hall of Famers. Jeter and Biggio will join them. Bonds, Rodriguez, and Sheffield all merit induction but it has yet to be determined how voters will treat the steroid era. That leaves 4 Vada Pinson All-Stars: Damon, Pinson, Abreu, and Finley.

Abreu stands out from the other three due to his much higher peak. Unfortunately, his best seasons were wasted in Philadelphia for bad Phillies teams and he never finished higher than 12^th in MVP voting and was only named to 2 All-Star teams. A look at the career numbers of Abreu and Finley alongside Damon and Pinson:

Name	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	BB	BA	OBP	SLG	TB	OPS+	WAR
Abreu	1439	2434	565	59	286	1347	398	1451	.292	.396	.477	3975	129	57
Finley	1443	2548	449	124	304	1167	300	844	.271	.332	.442	4157	104	40.4
Damon	1668	2769	522	109	235	1139	408	1003	.284	.352	.433	4214	104	52.1
Pinson	1366	2757	485	127	256	1170	305	574	.286	.327	.442	4264	111	50.2

Note: Abreu’s statistics are through August 11, 2012.

Although Abreu is still active, he is clearly on the downside of his career. He will never approach the hit total of Damon and Pinson, but his high walk count gives him a significant edge in on base percentage. Finley hit for a lower average but, surprisingly, hit more home runs, making him 1 of 8 players in the 300 homer/300 stolen base club. All four of the listed players were good players for a number of years and put up very respectable numbers. They each were underappreciated during their careers but their Hall candidacies will all suffer the same fate.

Johnny Damon was a very good baseball player for a number of years. His terrific blend of speed and power place him in exclusive company in several categories. But he was never among the top players in the American League and his low peak, combined with his inability to hang around to collect 3,000 hits, makes his candidacy an easy call to make. Like Vada Pinson before him, Damon will spend several years on the Hall of Fame ballot but ultimately will never be elected.

           

Rollins: Greatest Phil ever? HoFer? No way

By MATTHEW OSBORNE
@trentonianozzy

On a recent broadcast of a game between the Atlanta Braves and the Phillies, the Braves’ announcers were making idle chatter during an at-bat when they made two superlative assessments of Jimmy Rollins.

First, they said he was possibly the greatest Phillie ever. Then they went on to say that he will end up in Cooperstown one day.

The first statement is absolutely ludicrous and I will not even bother wasting your time backing that statement up with stats. Mike Schmidt, Robin Roberts, Grover Cleveland Alexander, Jim Bunning and Steve Carlton come to mind immediately, and I’m pretty sure Chase Utley and Cole Hamels are bigger all-time great Phillies than Rollins on his own team.

But let’s look at J-Stroll, as I like to call him, as a candidate for the Hall of Fame, another claim I find laughable.

He’s closing in on 2,000 hits, and he has more than 1,100 runs and 400 doubles. He has batted .271 with 182 homers and 766 RBIs in his career.

With Rollins on the tail end of his effectiveness, these numbers are not particularly remarkable. For a guy known for defense, he has just three Gold Gloves in his career as well.

(Side note: Gold Gloves aren’t everything, as evidenced by the fact that Rollins’ teammate Placido Polanco has just three as well despite having the best fielding percentage in history at both second and third base. While we’re on the topic, with a .299 career average, more than 2,000 hits and just 60 fewer RBIs than Rollins, one can make the argument that Polly is a better candidate for the Hall than J-Roll, though neither has a good case.)

Rollins also has some interesting stats for a leadoff man, including 918 strikeouts compared to 603 walks.

Let that sink in for a second. That’s 1 ½ strikeouts for every walk. Wow. You’d be better off with Adam Dunn as your leadoff man. Seriously.

For reference, all-time great leadoff man Tim Raines (also NOT in the Hall somehow) had 966 strikeouts in his 24-year career, just a few more than Rollins has already accumulated in just over half the time. But Rock drew 1,330 walks for a .72 strikeouts/walk ratio, far lower than Rollins.

And let me repeat, Raines is not in the Hall of Fame, getting 48.7 percent of the vote last year.

While I realize Raines is an outfielder and not a shortstop, comparing him to Rollins as an effective leadoff man is an important one. Raines had 980 RBIs, batted .294 (OBP .385, nearly 60 points higher than J-Roll) and had 2,605 hits. Rollins will never approach these figures.

This year, Rollins is hitting .245 with an on-base percentage just a hair over .300. He leads the league in infield pop-ups (true stat) and has been a miserable leadoff man for the downtrodden Phillies.

Rollins has 390 steals, and he and Miami’s Jose Reyes (397) are about to crack the 400 barrier in steals.

Interestingly, only seven modern era shortstops have stolen as many as 400 bases. (Note: this list does NOT count guys who played the majority of their career in the 1800s when the rules for steals were different AND the game was a poor representation of what it is today, something we at Highway to Hall like to call “Sweater Ball.”)

Honus Wagner                  723

Bert Campaneris              649

Maury Wills                        586

Ozzie Smith                        580

Luis Aparicio                       506

Donie Bush                         406

Omar Vizquel                     403

Of those seven, only Wagner, Smith and Aparicio are in Cooperstown, with Vizquel a possibility down the road. Still, getting to 500 steals would at least make this an arguable point in J-Roll’s favor, but he’s not going to make it.

Some would argue whether Vizquel is a legitimate Hall candidate, so let’s look at his numbers quickly as a brief context for Rollins’ alleged candidacy.

Vizquel has 11 Gold Gloves with a .272 average, .337 on-base percentage, 2,861 hits and 947 RBIs.

In short, Vizquel is a far better Hall of Fame candidate than Rollins, and he will still have his hands full getting in from what I have heard from experts.

Rollins had one monster MVP season in 2007 where he was the most individually dominant all-around player in baseball, and he deserved that award. But outside of that magical year where he basically carried the Phillies to the division title, he has been mediocre at best.

Outside of that amazing year, he has hit .268 with an average output of 13 homers and 55 RBIs per year.

BaseballReference.com says the most similar hitter to Rollins in history is Jay Bell. I say that, outside of one terrific year, that is an insult to Jay Bell.

The Phillies made one of the worst decisions in franchise history by signing Rollins to a $33 million contract last winter when no one was bidding on him. They basically gave him back pay for having a great MVP year and one big postseason hit off Jonathan Broxton, and now they’re stuck with an aging mediocre shortstop for two more years at $11 million per when they have plenty of holes to fill.

Add in that J-Roll’s fielding percentage this year is the lowest it’s ever been, and you’ve got a huge black hole of money there for a couple years.

So there’s no way Rollins is going to Cooperstown, and there’s even less chance of him ever becoming the greatest Phillie ever.

Heck, I’d settle for him running out a ground ball before we put him in the Hall.